The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… First impressions last longest.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Despite an interim rally to 2837.50, Wednesday’s late test of 2814.50 down to 2813.00 was probed back down to 2809.50 just before Thursday’s open. Its reaction recovered 2814.50 into the open, and eventually attacked 2837.50 into the afternoon’s bias environment. Its attack was poorly timed, and bonds probing new lows set the tone for another drop back down to Wednesday’s 2813.00 low. Although there was no bullish reason for the area’s revisit, the close bounced and attacked 2824.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Post-close high-profile earnings (AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL) repeated the after-hours volatility that has become almost normal this week. But the initial Globex bounce up to 2831.00 was reversed back down to Thursday’s late 2812.50 low. Ranging at 2815-2821 gave way as Europe’s opens triggered a collapsed to 2797.00. Its reaction up to 2806.00 has been narrowing to form an Ascending Triangle.
If, then…
Of course, the bullish scenario is that this week’s selling has become more pessimistic than the news can justify. Which could be true, if this week’s selling were triggered by pessimism. But to the degree that it was “triggered,” excessive optimism better defines the origin’s sentiment. Pessimism has surely developed along the way down, and now there’s potential for having overly-discounted its sentiment ahead of this morning’s Employment Situation report. But optimism seems alive and well with the after-hours bounces among yesterday’s post-close earnings plunges. The most bullish scenario would recover enough pre-open to isolate the probe of fresh lows to the overnight — and also maintain and extend the recovery through the open. Another bullish scenario would quickly test the next lower objectives at 2805.00 and possibly 2793.50 and also quickly recover through the open. The weekend’s impending illiquidity can exaggerate the morning’s action in either direction, so first impressions may be lasting.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary levels are not considered on Employment Situation report days.