The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… First impressions last.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday started pessimistically, but didn’t get worse. It may have looked or felt that way since the range is so wide. Gapping down sharply 22 points to 2832.00 immediately probed another 3 points lower. A quick 10-point bounce reacted down 20 points as quickly to 2818.50. All during the first half-hour. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, narrowing through the day and closing around 2824.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wide, choppy gyrations that characterized intraday action has also defined last night’s ranging. More so, the choppiness expanded instead of contracting, and it has been flat-to-higher. Firming 6 points into the State of the Union speech ultimately surged 6 points afterward to 2835.50. Collapsing 10 points reversed up almost 12 points. And still, yesterday morning’s 2837.00-2839.50 highs have barely been attacked. The last dip to 2828.50 has reacted up to attack 2835.00, about 11 points above yesterday’s close.
If, then…
For all of yesterday’s persistent pessimism, and for all of the overnight choppiness, yesterday’s opening range still stands. Neither end has been touched since then. None of which prevents trending, but it limits the window for starting it. And anything which is limited is implicitly less likely. Having said that, yesterday’s wide opening range does allow reactions within it to be as satisfying as a usual trending leg. Yesterday morning’s highs could be probed into the “empty” space of its gap down (in the Market Tour, I show how to identify the resistance that’s in it). But while this afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is impending, a resolution will likely be inhibited.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2838.50 would likely also exceed the 2837.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2845.00. Exiting the open above 2831.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2830.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.