The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Floating above thin ice.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The past week has been marked with some meaningful recoveries. They began last Friday afternoon when the morning’s 60-point plunge rallied 110 points. They include Wednesday’s 49-point pre-open CPI-plunge that was retraced during the first hour and reversed up 70 points. Their last instance was Thursday morning’s 29-point drop which then rallied 55 points. The last one began from gapping up, so buyers have grown less patient. Two consecutive afternoons have rallied when they could have afforded to refuel the rally by backing-and-filling, also reflecting less patient buyers. Meanwhile, a second consecutive higher close above 2684.00 makes 2753.00-2757.00 even likelier.

Overnight action’s new info…
The rally has extended higher overnight in two distinct legs. Their reactions suggest a third upleg is needed soon to avoid reversing down. Thursday’s late surge firmed 6 points into and out of the 2732.00 cash session close to attack 2738.00. Then price action narrowed to a 6-tick (ticks, not points) range for several hours. A momentary surge after midnight reacted down to pierce the earlier overnight high down to 2732.50 — keep an eye on that level. A more considered extension to fresh highs attacked 2647.00 and also reacted down, attacking 2736.00. So far, still hovering back above yesterday’s highs.

If, then…
Call it a domino effect. Wednesday’s close above 2684.00 and Thursday’s close above 2698.00-2700.00 have put into play the next higher objective at 2753.00-2757.00. The higher objective seems to be intact and even in-play for today with overnight action trending up and this afternoon becomes yet to be influenced by the bullish WedEX. But be aware that a session-long signal can still invert the WedEX influence. I wouldn’t bother addressing that this morning, if not for overnight action having pierced the earlier Globex low (described above). Exiting the open under it would form the same sell signal that had triggered at the Jan 29 top to point lower through the following morning. At least that instance could have been contained to that morning, but today’s expiration is usually a session-long influence. Otherwise, the bullish WedEX influence could still be greeted lower if those dominoes that point higher test 2753.00-2757.00 early, which could quickly become more like a house of cards.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2744.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2740.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2738.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2732.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2726.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.