The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Game (back) on?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The pre-Thanksgiving volume contraction had its usual effect, albeit more so on narrowing the range, and less so the volatility within it. The morning’s 2600.00 bias-up signal was touched by a pre-open surge. But only attacking it post-open avoided an offsetting test of its bias-down signal being put into play. The overnight low was eventually probed by 3 ticks down to 2593.75. Firming into and out of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes held repeated tests of a buy signal above 2597.50, before a last-minute 3-4 drop into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Potential down to 2591.75 had been left unresolved — not required to be met, and not required to be met intraday. Although not “unfinished business below,” it was met during a drop to 2589.50 triggered by slowing economic numbers from China. Its test coincided with Europe’s opens, which apparently had a different sentiment in mind. A rally extended relentlessly until recovering back up to Wednesday afternoon’s highs at 2598.00. Enthusiasm cooled with U.S. exchanges being closed. Thursday night’s Globex was initially choppy, dipping to 2594.00 and bouncing up to 2598.50. That all changed two hours ago, as a break higher extended to new highs attacking 2602.00. Its brief consolidation just produced a blip-up that pierced 2602.00 momentarily.

If, then…
Will the open be greeted by the indicated gap up to new highs? That would resemble Tuesday’s open, which had gapped up to 2590.50 and extended to test its 2600.00 target. That doesn’t make gapping up again more likely to extend higher, and perhaps makes extending higher less likely. Similar setups don’t tend to resolve similarly when they appear sequentially. A trend’s sponsorship evolves over time, as it attracts reinforcements. Identical behavior often means older sponsorship is acting alone, which is difficult to sustain. Tuesday and Friday’s opens aren’t exactly sequential, separated by Wednesday night’s interim dip to relevant support. But unusual trading hours make the setups sequential enough. And today’s briefer session, impending weekend, and thin holiday crowd only make it more difficult to attract sponsorship. Counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to attract, too. So, this morning’s opening direction might be predictive of the entire session. Not gapping up could be bullish if its post-open action were attracted back up to the overnight high.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2600.75 would be likely to trigger the 2598.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2596.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s Market or it’s a shorter session by a couple of hours couple 3 hours just threw 115 actually for futures and so there’s some interesting interesting influences interesting influencers that are missing interesting influences that are impacting the day or potentially impacting the day likely impacting the day along with the usual Friday factors Friday factors being function of today’s impending illiquidity behaviour change their influence by that the holidays bullish seasonality here we are told you all about it last week week plus looking for the potential of any kind of significant significant drawdown and that significant drawdown needing to it worked its way into the market by Monday at the latest and after that would have little chance of appearing or if trying to appear of succeeding and then that of course being a function of thinner trading because this is really the middle of what a lot of Traders and stretch out into a five-day holiday or longer so not that their participation of those particular participants missing or that those particular participants are the ones responsible for producing trending but they help liquidity and bigger traders that are responsible for producing trending if they are around or wanted to be wouldn’t want to be dipping into that market not aggressively of Center Center crowd dinner volume there liquidity so let’s see how that’s going to have an effect on what has happened since Wednesday volume or is it already before well before that back into the range this seems to be related toto curtail or to publicly say they’re curtailing production and that tells crude oil as we’ll see in a moment and don’t see the same aggression and crude oil at the same time as we’ll see you in a moment so not necessarily directly tied or only tied to that but in any case it’s produced a fresh I prioritize prioritize our being probed prioritize prioritize 2600 area there is that dip corrective dip right up to uptrending support recovery of the recovery relative to the prior highs that’s pessimism pessimism is Alive and Well in this market alive and sporadically so when it doesn’t stay well but that pessimism and from a perspective Behavior at least optimistic Behavior because that’s what the pessimism was indicating could come which is why that was bullish but now we’ve got a different situation this morning’s open as indicated to Gap up back 2 or 3 size Like Mondays open which gapped up to Android through relevant highs and rallied to the date of that was 2600 all of the different influences today sequential setups tend not to resolve similarly this isn’t the most sequential setup that we could or the most sequential order that we could see because there are a day or two in between Monday’s Gap up that extended higher and I’m sorry did I say Monday I meant Tuesday Tuesday’s Gap up that extended a day or two in between there’s the holiday influence there but the fact is the rule that similar setups 10 not to resolve similarly not always the case but the rule is that sponsorship as it attracts reinforcements if a similar action is being displayed sequentially so in other words same area possibly the product of the same sponsorship that’s why they need then that is reinforcements and that will be able to extend up but if reinforcements haven’t been attracted then the rally won’t extend then we’ll know because the rally will be the Gap up will be being rejected it’s difficult lower volume fewer hours and pending weekendbut if it’s just as easily to recover easier totwo probe new high so it’s one of the other through the open the opens resolution trending up or trending down and you can see which way this is trying to try to resolve maybe not even the Gap up at all but just open in the range and that could be the one opportunity leaving an overnight High not a new club ex-friend extreme but an overnight high that wants to be were tested anyway that could be the one possibility to attract price higher and maybe catapulted or Ricochet at that is slingshot it to higher highs will it be open closer to the open because it’s too close to prioritize and unresolved which saved Itself by extending higher as it did last time that it was about to but that was facing a bearish setup or potentially bearish resolution has been maintained Euro which by being very shallow he became likely or unlikely test this gap-to-gap up to last Wednesday’s open that’s been done now that was done in fact overnight and exceeded being seated 2 1 1890 so challenging and probing actually the Pryor High member that’s going to be difficult to maintain Post open and if it is then that’s potentially bullish Tuesday and Wednesday was the save that wasn’t so much as the test that is a Tuesday’s support didn’t have to resolve it but it has extended a little bit for correcting that has to extend iron today if it’s now it is recovering pound on its way and then the Aussie or trying to Silver and Gold pretty much major disappointments again in that not so much silver which it held 1711 didn’t actually recover it his dip back down to 1695 instead of closing decisively above 1711 or remaining in position to close decisively above 1711 gold which had come in with its own clothes but 1285 again still needing a second which that been lacking last Friday doesn’t seem to be on the verge of that when its immediate reaction overnight was the dip and after recovering 61.8% at least his retesting the dip slow something powerful Post open will be needed to even at potential for the weekend aggression but not I don’t think but anywayandDora having probed lower overnight not rejecting that so I coming back to the long blonde gold itself is been a major tease the long body as well but these probes above 15041 to 5402 these intraday probes and now once again for tracing the test 1 5402 so is it really broken out going to need two consecutive are closes to even suggest that that’s underway finishing up here with this extra little activity could turn out to be a consolidation kind of resembles a head and shoulders very small scale and that could allow a little dip to open lower and be attracted back to the overnight high and resume the rally just know that Thanksgiving Friday if there is any direction it can persist so be careful stepping in front of anything that is under way out of you after the open is established to Direction more so today than any other day

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