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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hiding its hand. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hiding its hand.

By Rod David | March 5, 2018 - 7:55 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s fresh low was likely for having trended down through each of the three prior sessions. Friday’s potential for trending down into the weekend was likely for similar reasons, and for being a Friday when the weekend’s impending illiquidity can exacerbate sentiment. The early bearish sentiment was contained to testing its 2652.00 bias-down target by 5 points. But the contrary sentiment was limited to returning to unchanged around 2677.00 by noon, and ranging there choppily until exiting the proxy window at 3:20. Surging 25 points to test 2695.00 into the close did not recover any relevant level to reverse the trend up, and its catalyst seemed only to be earlier shorts covering ahead of the weekend.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap down quickly touched 2677.00 and a couple of points lower, confirming that Friday’s late surge wasn’t necessarily bullish. Bouncing nearly filled the gap back to Friday’s 2690.00 close before reversing into a slide that eventually tested 2664.00. The slide not only ended at Europe’s opens, but also began reversing back up, briefly probing Friday’s close to almost 2692.00. the past hour has drifted back down 13 points.

If, then…
Immediately retracing Friday’s late surge last night does help to prove it wasn’t bullish. But having retraced it, resuming the recovery can suggest new sponsorship has arrived, after all. Resuming the rally by triggering bias-up, preferably by already exceeding Friday’s late high through the open. Rejecting a probe above Friday’s late high through the open would keep the door wide open to trending back down today.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2685.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2674.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 — at least, not without first touching the 2699.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2685.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2699.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Posted in members-only, Pre-market Tour, S&P, The First Trade