The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Holding pattern.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Nothing about Tuesday’s open was bullish, but, wow. Monday’s rally had closed above Friday afternoon’s prior high which put into play a much higher recovery target. Extending higher into Monday’s close retraced Friday morning’s high, too, but was still overlapping it. Extending even higher overnight was already reacting down into Tuesday’s open. And the opening 15 minutes of volatility was exited back at Friday morning’s high. Tests of both bias-up parameters were rejected. All of which is bearish. And only mildly productive, hardly attacking support at Friday afternoon’s high before trying to recover. That premature optimism can be more bearish than the bearish setups, when the bearish setups haven’t yet been fulfilled. It was followed by an extended optimism which avoided triggering bias-down, but fell anyway — and fell sharply enough to invalidate a required retracement. I was suspicious of that late break’s timing, but it was very productive, anyway.

Overnight action’s new info…
I had noted a 2600.00-2614.00 range before the position-squaring window. Closing within it Tuesday would not be predictive either way. The afternoon’s plunge tested it twice down to 2599.00 and 2596.00, then bounced to 2614.00 at the cash session close. Globex initially fluctuated around the close up to 2624.00. Its eventual reaction down into and out of Europe’s opens touched 2600.00. Bouncing is already retesting the range’s upper-end.

If, then…
Exiting the open beyond either end of 2600.00-2614.00 would be likely to trend in that direction. While there’s no assurance that the upcoming holiday weekend’s seasonal bullishness will be influential, its influence doesn’t begin until this afternoon. Which leaves this morning as optimal for extending the decline, if the decline intends to extend. If the decline does extend to close under Friday’s lows, I would be skeptical that a bullish influence was intended.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2625.25 would be likely to trigger the 2621.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2630.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2628.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2641.50. Exiting the open under 2614.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.