The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hope springing again?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

PROGRAMMING NOTES: Market Wrap MAY be held early today, and Saturday Review is NOT held on holiday weekends.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
[Today’s audio seems to stop at a late point, but I do then repeat the missed info.]
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session-long rally had extended its session-long rally overnight up to 2445.00. That could have been delayed until Thursday morning — or repeated or extended, and likely would have — so long as Thursday’s open was not already reversing back under Wednesday’s 2440.50 intraday highs. A dip had already warned us to act quickly if it repeated, and it repeated. The 2437.50 sell signal quickly triggered and soon extended to the reversal’s 2431.50 minimum objective. If that did not hold, then the next lower objective was to probe under Wednesday’s 2413.75 pre-open low. The afternoon bias environment touched 2402.25 in a capitulative pattern that was retraced up to 2422.50 before the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging was contained mostly between 2418.00-2422.00, narrow under most circumstances, and more so compared to Thursday’s range. Europe’s opens triggered a blip-down to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2414.75 bias-down signal. Its reaction up has extended to fresh overnight highs probe this morning’s 2425.25 bias-up signal by 6 ticks.

If, then…
Was Thursday’s plunge the delayed consequence of Wednesday having rallied prematurely? Was Wednesday’s rally, or Thursday’s plunge — or both, for that matter — influenced by the impending 5-day weekend’s illiquidity? Regardless of influences 2-3 days prior, today the weekend and its unique influences have arrived. Evaporating volume and shrinking liquidity typically inhibit trending from starting, and similarly exacerbate trending if a catalyst starts it. Today is being greeted from a position of weakness, having trended down since the prior Monday. Resuming the decline would be attracted down by the required retest of simultaneously oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2402.25 low. And then likely further to “lower prior high” at 2399.00 down to 2393.00. The same influences cut either way, and could extend yesterday afternoon’s recovery. But sellers won’t be marginalized at this stage of the pattern, so any rally would be tenuous.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2426.75 would be likely to trigger the 2425.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2421.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market to her a little bit of a push up here at the last couple minutes before starting the tour was trying to throw a little early actually today as it happens there’d been a will get into yesterday’s decline in the moment but overnight price action is really been defined by this relatively narrow narrow range largely to find between 2418 2422 yesterday’s late high was 2250 that was almost touched almost touched initially not by a significant Miss not considering the other night is the overnight here’s your UPS opens triggering flip down to a fresh low at 2415 1475 is the bias down signal so one tick off overnight and now we acting up to test the 24 25 25 by up signal test actually prove it proving it by by one point at this moment okay so does any of it mean anything not this early not this close to the open or this far from the open today of course if that would put into play and in the scheme of things which is yesterday show up it’s been corrected it doesn’t have to extend any higher today to correct any to finish correcting and if the decline resume that’s a likely attraction not only is that a likely attraction but it’s retest because of the ever sold simultaneously ever sold our size because of the simultaneously oversold are size of three tests would not likely hold or at least would be likely to touch 2399 before holding where there are lower Pryor High as you have to be retested + 2399 if that’s tested under the right circumstances could extend damn would likely extend down to 2393 before being able to recover if that could have gotten out of the way and I say that as if it’s already failed to happen and we we are not open yet where where a new downdraft can’t get that done early this morning my point is if early selling where to test add the RC by recovering the two week-old High that was already threatening it really invalidates this cell signal there is no more requirement by the cell signal that is invalidated that’s gap would like to be filled but there’s no requirement to close any lower in any case yesterday’s pattern created a island today is not indicated to gap down back under it and overnight has only traded higher so not a great sale candidate without it first showing that it’s weakening the pound had to confirm breakout requiring at least eventual third our clothes that is now fulfilled the Looney similarly confirm Breakout Now quickly fulfilled doesn’t mean it’s about to reverse down but there’s no requirement to extend any higher and the euro is disappeared and it’s back to the gyro also and it’s going again okay so obviously having a little bit of attitude problem there with the Euro confirm break out already fulfilled as well probing above its minimum objective Rob’s Arts maximum objective for this leg for the buying pressure contained in the basing that launched it it’s quite extended pull back clematis 11450 basically gold essentially at least the closure say held its 12:40 6:50 upper end of the balance limit probe did intraday but held It ultimately and reacting down a little bit there’s after yesterday yesterday’s pre-open or overnight slide that extended into the open stopped short the 12:35 charging that remains outstanding silver rolling forward to this app is extending down further overnight but it really didn’t participate yesterday other than to fill a gap outstanding below it could break lower that’s not to say it won’t because even though before Monday is open already tested the attempted yesterday and okay there’s been an audio issue here as we’ve gone through gone through and I’m not sure where to put can I’m sorry let’s go through the last few charts if it started with Metals wear silver has yet to even remotely try retesting Sunday night Slow that did anyway we test it STAR test its Target and it already responded to it its underperforming gold they wants to leave the way back down and certainly free to do that gold which is off a little but it held its bounce them at long bond which could be forming of pretty interesting bottom here because yesterday’s low held the declines Target it didn’t close above 150 for 16 and now a retest of yesterday’s allow is trying to hold it as well that set up essentially or at least almost equates to being a Buy Signal but the 154 16 is still helpful trigger that momentum is reversing up crude oil had 4525 Target extended Target the met and held yesterday and it’ll likely area to launch the next down leg with the next down leg is likely to be limited just backing and filling the complete a bottom it reacted down yesterday but not durably and it’s only retesting yesterday’s high this morning and the natural gas which greeted yesterday’s eia report from a position of strength and had a new gerbil knee-jerk reaction to it never the last ended lower and has potential now down to 295 Friday last Friday’s close lower prioritize the 95 to 97 however back above 308 if at any point this pull-back closes back rejected and retraced at least the clothes back of a 308 will assume the pullbacks done alright today ok .