The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Ineffectual pessimism?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Market Tour <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s 40-point rally from 2687 both triggered and fulfilled its 2707 and 2722 bias-up parameters up to 2727. And it was almost all retraced through the noon hour. The opening print was ultimately touched upon e\Exiting the afternoon bias environment’s wide 20-point range. Rather than break lower to form a Wreversal Wednesday, yet another bounce probed the upper-end of the afternoon’s wide range up to 2710. The 3:37 position-squaring window started retracing the last bounce, no differently than the choppy afternoon’s two prior bounces. The 2687 open was being attacked to within a point 3 minutes of the cash session close. Those next 3 minutes continued dropping at the same steep pace down to 2679, which extended to 2667 into the futures settlement. That first probe under the opening print was 20 points under it.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late drop had not slowed its pace through Wednesday’s closes. The pace barely slowed as the drop extended through the Globex open, eventually touching Monday’s 2645.50 cash session close equivalent. Its relevance persisted as its support has served as the overnight low. Rallying through Europe’s opens touched yesterday’s 2679 cash session close equivalent before reversing back down to 2657.
If, then…
The most bullish element is the very late origin of Wednesday’s last downleg, so its sponsorship may be weak-handed and more easily rejected. This is further suggested, not actually signaled, by already retracing the post-close and overnight follow-through back up to yesterday’s cash session close. But it’s not enough for a reversal signal to only retrace the last relevant level, which is yesterday’s cash session close equivalent. That may just be noise. The prior relevant level must also be recovered to indicate stronger-handed sponsorship, which this morning is at least the bias-up signal. Meanwhile, the most bearish element is that two consecutive sessions have probed back above December’s prior highs intraday but failed to close higher — to an increasing degree, both in probing above and rejecting below. The same principle applied to Tuesday’s bottoming pattern, which followed the expanding weakness through Friday and Monday. Similar to that setup, not gapping up above yesterday’s lows to try isolating the overnight drop would be vulnerable to extending the drop. And the next lower objective would be a retest of Monday night’s low down to 2509-2511.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2679 would be unlikely to trigger the 2674 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2665 would be likely to trigger bias-down.