The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Keepin’ it real.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s two recoveries from testing 2563.75 as support had recovered to 2578.00. A relatively small knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report was quickly erased from 2581.25. Post-open action dipped to 2574.00, holding Thursday’s “lower prior highs” as support. Rallying out of the morning’s bias environment extended through the afternoon’s bias environment to retest Wednesday’s 2585.50 high. The afternoon’s 2586.00 bias-up target was fulfilled to within 3 ticks. A new trend high close was less than optimal as the balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower to 2582.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Volatility didn’t take long to re-appear after the weekend. Saudi purge, Dudley retiring, Paradise Papers, Wilbur Ross – Russia allegations… to name but a few of the weekend’s headlines that Sunday night’s open both reflected and tried to absorb. The open’s nod to all of that was a blip-down to 2580.00 which quickly reacted up to 2584.50. But the weight was more unbearable than that little dip, especially after a headline from China, as a more substantial slide extended down to 2575.50 — which is essentially a 61.8% retracement into the congestion at Friday’s lows. Firming from there attacked 2582.00 into Europe’s opens, forming an Ascending Triangle that is now breaking higher to 2583.00.

If, then…
The overnight dip, having been contained within Friday’s range, is no less noise than was Friday’s rally up to its prior high. And just like Friday’s buyers not gaining new traction, neither has last night’s sellers. Friday’s rally was vulnerable to reversing down because its buying pressure was fulfilled at the afternoon’s bias-up target. Last night’s drop is reacting up from dipping into Friday morning’s range. But that stopped short of structural support like a prior low or lower prior high. Nevertheless, exiting the open in positive territory would be credible for extending higher anyway, at least temporarily probing Friday’s highs, perhaps up to the next higher objective at 2590.50. Otherwise, a retest of the overnight low would be likely, and and Friday’s low would be vulnerable to breaking lower, with room down to 2563.75 before suggesting the trend is reversing down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2583.50would be unlikely to trigger the 2585.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2580.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2578.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2576.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
alright it is Monday November 6th Timeflies this is the Monday Morning Market or it has been an interesting weekend with headlines which I pointed out at last night’s open there’s some geopolitical there’s some fomc physical Paradise papers I don’t know where that goes conspiratorial it’s just coming out of course tragedy in Texas coming at the market from all directions a lot of buying pressure being expended to ignore or absorb opening dip was limited to just a couple points of blip down really from Friday’s Cashing close Futures close was what 83 Cashing close not much different than that just bounced right back and then got a headline from China I was just warning ominously as they do but nothing really durable produce anything substantial or the reaction basically fall under the weight of all this and more 2576 E550 is it on the right back into the consolidation it Fridays open over there then that rally overnight Friday if not for me just really flat to hire a head of the employment situation report Delayed Reaction blip up itself so it’s kind of a 61.8% return it back into Friday’s range even stopped short of that if we generously get rid of ticks we kind of come up with that and then we don’t so little bit shallow on the pool bad but it’s over night so it can be dismissed so long as the intro by exiting the open and positive territory preferably isolating this overnight dip by developing exclusively in positive territory Post open right now at 8252 75 positive so that’s not at all after I definitely had sponsorship apparently stopped optimistically short of not completing itself but doing any real any real retracement it was otherwise just noise and by the way that’s after Friday’s rally member Friday’s rally had stopped right at pretty much Wednesday they started it hadn’t been done already accomplished nothing new to neutralize its attraction so sellers had created upside gravitational pull and so they need to get out of open and positive territory the openings in positive territory to get out of the attraction back down to the overnight low which is an attraction back down to Friday which really isn’t attraction to break under Fridaywe can look fordaddy 50 The Unfinished Business about being tested but failed to recover positive territory through the open there’s the attraction to the overnight low there’s Friday’s low 2574 area which basically is just no bullets reason to retest that unless something can be done through the open get the opening 15 minutes of volatility to test the overnight low and recover it hold it that could be that could establish a floor otherwise you got mad trying to be vague about how deep we could drift there’s room down to 6375 or to attack 6375 without yet reversing the trend down and as we discussed Saturday there’s no reason to touch right act 6375 unless that trend is reversing down so it gets pretty dangerous if the open or the morning hasn’t either or is trying to establish the bottom alright some value for a value range than 25 3850 2586 retest of Friday’s highs it starts running into trouble if it’s tested and also not exceeded again on Friday at relevant resistance failed to close above it leaving the vulnerability to the downside still closing within prior range is plural and there is a probe overnight of fresh Lowe’s trying to open try to isolate that to the overnight nothing changes then that’s the yen I can’t say it doesn’t make sense. To a bottom Breaking Bad on Friday overnight the opportunity to put in and then they still stuck in a Range doesn’t need to be that much more but there’s room up to 7250 73 without yet reversing momentum up and there it is being tested overnight similar set up except that haven’t come back within proximity to it 1650 objective and I haven’t stopped short of filling this new Gap back to 1670 that’s when the eye of the attempt to isolate the wrapping up above its prior High failed no bullet reason at that point to return to the Gap upgetting out of here testing 1650 is thatnegative influences that Olympic gold and prevent its recovery to valid question long Bond really did not take advantage on Friday it’s confirmed break out above 15220 because the confirmation session had fill the Gap without closing above it at 150 314 but it didn’t reject it just fluctuated around it maybe even chipped away at it the proof will be if the rally zooms and resume is above the highs of 15214 prior tests which bases basically 54041 5406 overnight there’s been some extension tu-154 05 right in there I’m going to raise the cell signal because that’s just not decisive enough to prevent the potential to prevent a reversal back down anyway even if only temporarily even if only two it’s not a cell signal yet the nearest so even though buyers are not bringing it at least not on a timely basis and they’re ending the days without having gained traction above resistance it’s being tested it’s still not enough of a pattern to reliably short a head of a pullback it’s just not there crude oil Saudi Arabia geopolitical risk premium ahead of a weekend or just the attraction to the weekend developments in Saudi Arabia the objectives of the inverted Head and Shoulders they got his back to the required 53 from late September from 5 weeks ago that was really it so fluctuating not necessarily doesn’t necessarily mean extending higher but just as testing 5415 Target last week created a very shallow pullback 5388 that is Friday’s close back above 297 there is no unfinished business testing 310 that must be exceeded that’s the 309-2312 area to prove that there is that the trend has reversed up now the Gap back to Friday I want a cell signal in the 309 312 areasubstantialrapper proving hire overnight isn’t necessarily fulfilling buying pressure so as cell signal is less reliable but what we can look at is since another Gap has been created back to Friday’s close its retest becomes likelier to also fill the prior Gap that’s about 293 294 so we’ve got a downside of jective of 293 294 that’s a lot of potential profit if we can have a good ratio to the risk premium it really comes down to this fully test this range test 3 12309 if 312 309 can be tested intraday closing back under 309 would be bearish a little closing that would be otherwise without that form then I wouldn’t be that confident that had been expended and contained all right questions and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today

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