The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The last mile.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s news of the Trump investigation getting a scalp triggered 43-point collapse from 2649.00. It quickly fulfilled its potential at the morning’s 2605.00 low. Headline-triggered moves are usually retraced entirely to their origin. Eventually. In support of this instance’s retracement, I described a bullish scenario that suggested the news wasn’t necessarily bad news for Trump. In fact, rallying relentlessly through the balance of the session retraced the plunge to 35 points into the afternoon’s bias environment. That was narrowed to 5 points ahead of the close, which essentially ended the day essentially unchanged at 2642.00, but still 7-8 points under the plunge’s origin. Firming into the futures close nearly touched 2545.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
A relevant point to Friday morning’s news story was retracted after Friday’s close. Sunday night’s Globex open was the first opportunity for a price reaction, and to tax reform advancing having cleared another hurdle over the weekend. Gapping up 10-12 points to 2654.50 was under Wednesday’s 2658.50 high. Spiking up to 2663.25 reacted down to this morning’s 2656.50 bias-up target as support. This defines a sideways range which has persisted through Europe’s opens.

If, then…
Saturday Review described the likelihood for extending through Friday morning’s high. Retracing the knee-jerk reaction’s origin doesn’t actually reward sponsorship that absorbed it. Probing new highs is a start, and need not last very long. Meanwhile, tax reform advancing was already largely discounted by Tuesday and Wednesday’s rally. Now there is no complexity overnight high that would qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme,” so there is no requirement to retest any of it intraday. And opening under its early low would suggest that momentum is reversing down for the morning. The early low is also this morning’s bias-up target, so not renewing the bias-up signal could put the morning on defense. The bias-up signal is the plunge’s origin, and not even triggering it could be outright bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2658.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2656.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2651.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2649.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market to her real short and sweet because pretty much just went over this Saturday review but essentially Friday stunning move or moves the knee-jerk reaction to the news story that as analysis started noticing noticing I guess somewhere near the low which satisfied a lot of selling pressure that the report was maybe a little flawed and not in some minor ways to the session retraced to end the day basically unchanged actually 2642 is the cash Station close Friday 2641 basically was the Futures close on Thursday then it gets flipped 2646 or 45 actually was being attacked at Friday’s close 2647 was being attacked at Thursday’s cash session close so basically unchanged on the day but not yet Rich racing the origin of the plunge the knee-jerk reaction to the news which is what usually is retraced and more so buyers that absorb the reaction the knee-jerk reaction are typically rewarded with some higher high that didn’t necessarily mean new Highs but the measurements came out to higher highs new highs and there’s the prior hide Wednesdays I being tested at last night’s open which by the way printed under did not print AB of Wednesday’s high before probing it probing it in a single Spike up and spending the entire day of the night so far at least overlapping it now the cash session met yet we’ll talk about it at the time for the time being unfinished business thanks to the overnight that would require this area to be retested in what way would be having which is essentially or even though which by the way this is all consolidating with support being the bias of Target so what would constitute a reversal would be this setup having probe the prior day’s High overnight exiting the open under the early load early Globex low would reverse momentum down don’t need to get any trending overnight to reverse just those two simple data points which by the way that would probably avoid signal 15 which means the signal wouldn’t be renewedthat would likely lead to backing and filling backing and filling through the morning the bias up signal is 2649 if that doesn’t trigger that by the way represents a complete replacement of the knee-jerk reaction to the news if 2649 is not recovered through 10:15 to trigger by step that would not just back and fill that would probably be pretty bearish for the morning not necessarily testing Friday’s low but racing meaningful portion of it otherwise there isn’t anything to prevent trending up nothing prevents is pattern from trending up but keep in mind this isn’t just a reaction to the knee-jerk reaction or recovery of the new jerk reaction to the news this is also a reaction to the tax reform package that over the weekend which is interesting of course because this on Wednesday and Thursday this rally a lot of headlines detailing or describing or other advances other likelihoods for the event for the tax advance so that’s pretty much built in its already discounted cannons to extend this morning it’s going to be vulnerable to reversing down intraday again silver Friday of Thursday brakes Thursday to avoid testing support filling attraction Thursday even though I still did not maintain gapping down back into the range bouncing back up to 150 for resistancewe need to get out ofcrude oil tried extending stopped a little pessimistically short of actually filling the Gap back to its prior High clothes although that range was requested a little bit weaker here overnight but giving that every benefit of the doubt that a recovery is underway natural gas firmer here training back up to 3310 North at 310 312 which must hold as resistance to maintain the 287 Target the yen is not maintaining Fridays recovery from under the 89 8920 support level that had got one reaction on Thursday before being tested program or considerably on Friday and then reacting up overnight it’s back that I actually got back down to Friday’s Lowe’s but you’re being tested there’s no bicycle here without closing which is pretty much positive territory the difference between positive or negative territory that’s the weather today or tomorrow but tomorrow is going to be too late if at least 89 doesn’t hold his support today breaking under 11860 on Friday before bouncing back to resistance giving it another shot today Looney extending Friday’s rally which Fridays rally just was perfect storm here the break out and it’s confirmation a required and eventual third lower close it was a fulfilled immediately no further downside requirement that’s what that’s what greeted Canada’s economic news that triggered the Surge and that has just followed through pretty well back to 79 so we’re back up to the size of this range that had multiple opportunities multiple tests for turns to what had been a bicycle at 78 7805 so presumably sellers a little bit more selling a false start fall start scratch the rubberband credible as any other bicycle it was triggered in this area today would confirm extended through the 13450 Target by holding a very shallow before bouncing 475 really have to give good luck today

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