The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Late reward.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s opening surge probed the morning’s 2633.50 bias-up target by 3 ticks before the first half-hour had ended. And before the 2628.50 bias-up signal could be triggered. Its reaction down managed to trigger late no-bias, using the grace period to reject bias-up. Triggering no-bias after testing a bias signal puts into play an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal. Which would have been 2617.50, but Wednesday’s low only got to 2620.00. Tuesday afternoon’s 2623.00 prior low was probed only during the cusp between the bias environment and the noon hour, and then during the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Both probes failed, but their bounces up to 2626.50 defined the afternoon range’s high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s 2622.00-2626.00 range persisted into Europe’s opens. Bouncing from the range’s lower-end became trending through its upper-end. The trend became more aggressive after testing 2630.00, and almost surged to within 1 tick of yesterday’s 2634.25 high. A 3-point reaction down just touched 2631.00.

If, then…
Thursday is greeted with conflicting influences. Repeatedly absorbing tests of 2623.00 is deserving of a greater reward than just ranging sideways up to 2626.50. And not already exploiting a greater upside reward suggests that “unfinished business below” at 2617.50 is influential. Not fulfilling the attraction below overnight or this morning was likely instead to greet today’s open by gapping up. And the overnight rally suggests the delayed reward to yesterday afternoon’s buyers will come before fulfilling downside attractions. A runaway rally isn’t likely, but some intraday extension will be likely if not quickly rejecting the retest of yesterday’s high.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2631.75 Would be likely to trigger the 2630.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2628.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday steps Thursday morning Market to order it is Thursday November thirty First the last day trading day of the month tomorrow is Friday of course December one first trading day of the new month last month of the year what else do we know about it we know that it’s being greeted optimistically yesterday’s range is the afternoons range that is didn’t exploit that buyers had absorbed the probe under 2623 the probe under Tuesday afternoons last relative low after being probed above Tuesday’s eyes somewhat strength somewhat a bit of strength and otherwise a position of strength that have outlasted the clothes trending down overnight intraday would have likely recovered but not enough to prevent trending down in fact the delay and rewarding buyers for having absorbed that probe under-23 just made made or makes more likely that lower lows will come because they were so influential as to prevent recovering yesterday afternoon currently that’s couple of those there’s still a Tuesday’s oversold are size and its 2609 75 pull back but yesterday also had put in the Play-Off sitting down signal 2617 54th Avenue held test both by not rejecting the bias down until late till invoking the grace period but rejecting it anyway the only way that we are going to avoid testing 1750 ever either overnight or this morning considering yesterday’s inability to Rally from the afternoon or through the afternoon the only way to avoid testing that over night or this morning would have been to Rally overnight opening flat opening within a range today would have had one likely very likely overwhelmingly likely outcome that would have been to extend yesterday morning’s reaction down overnight took care of that first yesterday afternoon’s range persisted into Europe’s opens if not through Europe’s opens already firming party probing a little bit higher and that extending and extending that assist within a tick of yesterday’s high what actually yesterday’s high of 26 3350 that was the morning it was probed by three checks just recently here overnight overwhelmingly overnight to overnight action using overnight but let’s at least because from yesterday morning and then back off 3 or more points that suggests that optimism here but it is restrained and there is still buying pressure available now that comes with live it’s so for instance this morning 2630 50s by accept signalwhich is now beingActon support if that’s not triggered at 10:15 of course then doesn’t matter what kind of pre-open pessimism there might have been the bias up failed the trigger that’s more relevant if at 940-526-3175 which is being tested right now if that is maintaining its recovery if it’s back to being recovered will give the bicep signal 3050 benefit of the doubt that it will be 30 minutes later but right now but we do have in front of us at this time the data available show stopping short of the auvergne of the essays high so we’ll give that some degree of or some benefit of the doubt there was a little deterioration here not really a negative two virgins but it’s worked itself out paid a price for it the question is then if we open up here at 4 or if we open the question is to what degree would be in play remember though there is a Gap Band Outstanding within yesterday’s range it’ll still be attractive gapping up above yesterday’s range would help to Anchor have pull back if we reverse engineer the attraction back down to yesterday and yesterday’s high would be difficult to get back down to your house and lower we can at least suspect that today’s open is less likely to Gap up above so that I’ll be our first test of that template whether it’s in force and that is if the open is gapping within yesterday’s range or above it camping Within but would have less sponsorship and less likelihood of extending of maintaining its extension if there is one we are going to look for silver levels updated on silver silver and gold February but essentially yesterday at 1650 unfinished business was filled of the low a couple months ago lower overnight I’m putting a V bottom to the bottoms when TV bottoms appear they usually appear from a lower level so that right away makes that less likely and if there is a second V bottom attempt it usually fails so not really rushing for to look for a Buy Signal here gold avoided closing under 1250 bases December yesterday although signal overnightagainso I’m asking $4 Cent $24 spread here so I’ve 1270 or 12 8150 whips basis February gold closing Under 12 8150 would confirm momentum as a verse down Long Pond closing 53 would indicate a much bigger Decline and away and not simply a corrective dip all of this probing above 150 for failing to extend was also chipping away at resistant so it at least has the opportunity if it could stretch the rubber band snap back up find buyers at least has the opportunity that on the next approach of 154 resistance is basically gone but it has to hold 153 it has to close back above on 5320 so not exactly being attempted here overnight crude oil which completed a pullback or tested lower prioritize fill the gap down here at about 5680 then to 5675 didn’t trigger it’s by signal yesterday that has extended hire overnight eventually lately every benefit of the doubt for flight for fulfilling a pullback ending a pullback natural gas which really didn’t follow through despite that big 12 3/16 resistance and kind of still testing 316 which is a bicycle if recovered wasn’t very credible because of its still testing if they were going to recover 316 and trigger a Buy Signal really needed to be decisive and not just bouncing off of it at the clothes back within the pattern under the open it’s a little suspicious and even though closing at 12 yesterday would have been need to close until 3:10 today to establish that yesterday’s session not an anomaly but not indicative of or not preventative I should say I’ve actually resolving down to fulfill a retest of 277 6312 rejected and potentially so it’s not a short of breaking through the clothes this gap down testing 310 actually recovers Too Close back above 3/16 keep in mind today is actually closed back about 3:16 today and that’s it we won’t give sellers any credibility won’t be looking for trending back down will look for a bigger up leg underway but the likelihood is reversing back down to 3:10 and at least closing into this area thoroughly testing it caught 8989 20 must hold must hold 8989 to reverse backup to lease retest the high if not actually probit Euro flirting with its 1860 cell signal not rejecting its testLily extending down a little deeperthat sell signal requiring an eventual 3rd lower close which today is working on the pound which went on through all that brexit on-again-off-again noise or confusion fulfilled its 13450 Target very tight pull back limit 134 25 must hold through any clothes it’s not a cell signal otherwise but that is the end of the road if the pull back when I can’t hold otherwise potential to extend the rally and then the Aussie which fighting it for trying to come in for at least fill this week old Gap good luck today

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