The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Making another break for it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up to 2348.00 was briefly consolidated before surging to attack 2855.00. RSIs diverged negatively on its retest, presaging a 30-point drop to 2825.50. The afternoon bounce probed a couple of points back above Tuesday afternoon’s highs up to 2845.25. It held as resistance through the close to prevent the afternoon’s buyers from regaining traction for their effort. However, Tuesday afternoon’s last relative lows at 2837.00 were recovered to prevent the morning’s sellers from gaining traction for their effort. Meanwhile, “unfinished business below” was created by the afternoon’s “bias-down rally” which requires retracing its 2835.50 bias-down signal that was recovered prematurely. Also left outstanding was Wednesday’s 2848.00 opening gap which requires an intraday retest.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially dipping through the Globex open pierced the 2835.50 attraction below by 1 tick before bouncing 8 points to test what is this morning’s 2843.00 bias-up signal. Its retracement down into Europe’s opens came within 1 point of the earlier low. Reacting back up has extended to fresh highs probing yesterday’s 2848.00 open by 2 points — also probing what is this morning’s 2849.25 bias-up target.
If, then…
Last night’s initial dip neutralized the required retest of 2835.50. Its recovery can’t neutralize the 2848.00 attraction until the open. And its probe is already testing the objective’s room for noise, with ECB, Draghi, and four pre-open econ reports yet to have their impacts. Almost any higher would become likely to probe yesterday’s 2855.00 high, and then 2872.25. Meanwhile, a new observation suggests otherwise. Yesterday’s drop rivaled last Tuesday’s 39-point high-to-low intraday drop. Yesterday’s low retraced 61.8% of the distance back down to the 2809.50 origin of last Tuesday’s drop. Several other Fibonacci relationships between the two drops and their interim price action all suggest the one-week, 85-point move reflects the same sponsorship. This implies that intraday behaviors will repeat. Not extending higher intraday is becoming likelier, as is an intraday rejection of morning strength. So, maintaining the rally depends on not rejecting early strength early.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2850.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2849.25 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2855.00. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2843.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.