The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… No argument.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Ranging sideways overnight had briefly probed under Tuesday’s intraday lows, but Wednesday’s open gapped up. The gap up was immediately retraced, but not enough to probe back under Tuesday’s lows, forming the basis of an Isolation setup. The bias-up signal triggered, too, after already having come within 2 points of its target. Both setups were invalidated — by probing back under Tuesday’s lows and by exiting the bias environment under its bias-down signal, respectively. Neither rejection equated to a sell signal, but an afternoon recovery back into positive territory ended when the bias environment began lapsing. The balance of the session plunged 47 points to retrace almost all of the past week’s rally.

Overnight action’s new info…
The late intraday plunge to 2712.00 was initially consolidated back up to 2722.50. Another smaller collapse suddenly fell to 2703.00, which began another consolidation through midnight. A hopeful rally back to the earlier highs greeted Europe’s opens. But hovering there narrowly for another hour wasn’t hopeful enough to avoid sliding back down to the overnight lows. And now lower, having just touched this morning’s 2698.25 bias-down target, where last Wednesday afternoon’s plunge had closed.

If, then…
For all of the recent selling, a new downleg hasn’t yet been triggered. There certainly are reasons to suspect that sellers are stronger-handed. Such as, rejecting the bias-up three times in two days, which is distributive but not a trigger. Retesting the original pullback’s 2701.50 limit — whose test last week had reacted up into Tuesday morning’s high — isn’t necessarily bullish, but it’s not bearish without closing below it. And now the same can be said of a recovery. While yesterday’s renewed selling may be no more than pessimism ahead of Fed chair Powell’s Senate testimony today, a relief rally after he appears won’t be enough to suggest the recent low’s retest has held. The only early reliable setup from the overnight pattern would require the open to probe above its 2722.50 high. Anything shallower will remain vulnerable to probing lower intraday, regardless of its resolution.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2701.50 would be likely to trigger the 2707.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.