The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not so fast.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted by a 19-point overnight slide. It had begun soon after  fulfilling Wednesday’s “unfinished business above” at 2594.50. The open extended the slide another point and then reacted up 10 points, only to launch another 20-point slide. Its noon hour low stopped at the 2363.75 critical support. The balance of the session rallied almost 31 points back up to the morning’s 2583.75 high. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding. Interestingly, the noon hour was entered and exited at 2570.00, having dipped in the interim down to 2363.75 — both being relevant levels.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging supported by 2580.25 initially firmed to attack 2586.00 through midnight. A sudden downdraft back to 2580.25 gradually broke lower. The drop extended sharply to attack this morning’s 2571.00 to within 2 ticks, retracing 61.8% of yesterday afternoon’s recovery. Its reaction up is attacking this morning’s 2577.00 bias-down signal as resistance.

If, then…
But for two caveats, yesterday afternoon’s recovery was likely to extend higher overnight. Recovering before the close any higher than the morning’s high would have all but ensured extending higher overnight. But yesterday morning’s high was probed only overnight. The other caveat to immediately extending Thursday’s recovery is its timing. The impending weekend’s illiquidity introduces “Friday Factors” that can shift the paradigm. Still, holding a test of this morning’s 2571.00 bias-down target can allow the morning to rally. There’s another relative wide range of support at 2566.75-2568.50. Not recovering its test through a relevant timing window, back above yesterday’s 2570.00 noon hour entry/exit, would become more likely to duplicate yesterday morning’s decline into the weekend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2568.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2571.00 bias-down target through 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2566.75. Exiting the open under 2574.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2577.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2580.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s Market or sexual past I’m running a little late it’s an interesting pattern here real quickly than a reminder at the top we have a Saturday review tomorrow morning Saturday review tomorrow morning bigger picture of course which is going to be very interesting I can assure you of that will also look at stocks and he stalks you request which I can tell you also just looking at The Usual Suspects there has been some really interesting stuff we’re going to look at things for instance which have totally underperformed in the last rally Lake of the Broad and Market Etc so let’s move on here is yesterday’s drop which began by trending down overnight off of an initial bounce 2 resistance and satisfied 2594 50 the only calculable website objective that was outstanding there was somewhat of a of complexity to form a new globe ex-friend extreme that requires an eventual a retest that won’t be preventative to a decline it didn’t prevent attraction that requires any certain timing to test so leave that bounce or the recovery yesterday from having first of all trying to resume the overnight decline didn’t work and then drop another 20 pointsalright so there’s the short and sweet to yesterday’s decline one other thing about yesterday’s decline was what happened during the noon hour I guess he’s recovering yesterday Zach line into the new now I remember we had to next lower objectives we’re 2570 actually that was an excellent objective we just know there’s big supported 6375 2575 the 25 70 that’s where the noon hour was introduced or entered and it was exited there as well coming out of the noon hour through 120 what happened in the interim lower lows the entirety of any probing under 25 70 and the entirety of any probing under the new towers entry and exit developed during the noon hour contained exclusively into the noon hour or during the noon hour and not to mention the low was not arbitrary it touched 6375 that’s one of the things that gave us the confidence to look for that to be a meaningful low that meaningful low is already played out to a degree but more so or more relevant now that it’s already played at 2 degree is that there’s no bullets reason to revisit 2570 let alone 6375 there’s one instance that would allow her visiting 2578 2563 75 any part of this range and to be bullish to have a bullish resolution and that is to isolate its test too isolated to a timing window that exits having recovered that test where they entered if it is exited back above that entry point after probing into this range to whatever degree or below it that’s bullish to him held that test otherwise nothing bullish about returning into this 2570 support or lower and not recovering it through a relevant window as for the recovery the recovery stops short of the or stopped at the mornings High otherwise there too overwhelming likelihood that was the one big bigger yet I should say that this was a Thursday coming into Friday’s coming into Friday’s Friday factors if that one bigger opportunity to Trend higher didn’t extend then the Friday factors come into play and start exaggerating the Thursday pattern not exaggerating whatever happens over night into Friday but exaggerated Thursday intraday plunge which has potential to extend actually to duplicate on Friday so that’s where we’re at today with one more observation and that is this is a 61.8% race meant the overnight low 61.8% retracement yesterday afternoon’s rally the rally up to the overnight highs so that’s a 61.8% retracement that’s constructive so we haven’t yet resumed certainly not post open resumed yesterday that is natural down here down to 6666 75 so there is some room for noise dipping again back into that 2570 area there’s all sorts of supporting down here 945and not broken to 11:30 just whatever timing window sellers will not be marginalized today it will be openings for them to take control but if they’re holding these tests at least we’re going to be able to catch bounces off of them and also know that if there’s a return to that test no second bite of that apple down we go bigger picture just real quickly if there’s a recovery there’s a recovery it’s backed up to yesterday’s high is no insurance of any higher we have to get out of of yesterday’s highs 2584 roughly through relevant window to suggest that we are heading back to Wednesday night’s I-94 50 and higher otherwise if sellers take control through any two methods or pads that I just described that’s it 2563 75 support really doesn’t exist any longer there was no bullets reason to a Revisited it yesterday other than the isolated test during the noon hour no more bites at that Apple it’s already thoroughly tested or each of those tests as produced in the interim previously this is a big up trend and a big reversal coming if the 2563 7500 is Revisited let alone 2570 is not recovered through any relevant window after being probed and it’s a Friday so that happens at any point stick around alright other markets Euro bounce yesterday firming a little bit here overnight or at least needs to break back under 11630 to Signal the trend reversing down the Yen and needed to hold basically 8888 25 radiator support yesterday well basically above again the 8825 resistance but it’s a good start to the 805 is still relevant today to confirm does it really need to fill this 9131 but we’ll give it a close above 13190 which is being tested here now and will look for that to extend so long as it’s a valid break and persists RC in range gold really I perform silver yesterday just by ranging sideways by maintaining Wednesday Wednesdays predominant portion of Wednesday’s range but it still needs to extend higher that’s not a second consecutive are closed when the clothes yesterday is within the prior day’s range still needs to extend iron it’s not doing anything of the sort or at least not rejecting that at this moment silver again after gapping down into it never recovered and back to Wednesday has been suspicious but it never got aggressive to protect against to protect against thistrending down much more deeptesting this 153 cell signal closing 81-53 would indicate the trend and reversed back down at least two 152 maybe after that after 1:53 is confirmed if it is though. Just touching 152 but a second consecutive lower clothes for talking about new love crude oil still fluctuating chopoli sideways no new signal there or natural gas which Zorb and initially negative knee-jerk reaction on the Gia report but still hasn’t converted that ending the recording here any questions going postal in the chart room and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today

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