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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not quite rejected. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not quite rejected.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
[WE’RE USING A BACKUP MEETING ROOM TODAY]

Through the prior close…
Last year’s last day was preceded by an 11-point overnight rally to 2698.25 that probed the 2697.75 prior high. But it didn’t hold, and the open was greeted by a shallower gap up to 2693.75. And even that quickly triggered a sell signal under 2692.25 that extended lower in time to reject both bias-up parameters. An offsetting test of both bias-down parameters was put into play, and the balance of the afternoon trended down more shallowly to attack 2681.00. One more reaction up to 2686.50 was rejected by a collapse into the cash session close down to 2674.50, which futures extended down to 2668.75. All “unfinished business below” was neutralized.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday night’s open gapped up to 2674.50, and extended higher to 2681.75. Trending back down eventually attacked the opening print to within 3 ticks at 2675.25. The trending’s last bounce has developed into a recovery to fresh overnight highs now attacking 2685.00.

If, then…
Gapping down and extending Friday’s late collapse would have been today’s likelier opening scenario, except for the weekend. That’s the least likely resolution when it develops ahead of the weekend. The special circumstances do allow a path higher that essentially treats Friday’s late collapse like an anomaly by gapping up above 2684.25. In fact, last night’s open did gap up above 2684.25. Which is the basis for a setup that can extend to retest Friday’s 2698.25 overnight high. But the open has to exploit the overnight recovery attempt, or else the morning could retest and possibly probe Friday’s late low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2682.25 would be likely to trigger the 2679.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2675.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
Unavailable today.