The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… That explains the late sell signal.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s initial rally attempt was likely to fail, at least to probe back under Wednesday’s plunge lows. Attacking 2344.75 to within 1 tick sufficed, and allowed rallying into the afternoon bias environment. The 2364.50 bias-up target was attacked to within 3 points, and then reacted down 9 points. The afternoon ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report wasn’t really paralyzed by anxiousness. That would have been bullish. Instead, repeatedly retracing higher highs back down to 2350.50 made fresh lows likely. A bounce into the 3:10-3:20 proxy window met its 2354.00 objective, but only fluctuated there into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Fluctuating at 2354.00 became fluctuating around it, probing up to 2356.50. Then came the missile strikes in Syria, triggering a 19-point plunge to 2236.75. That’s fresh lows for the week. The knee-jerk reaction up to 2349.50 eventually stabilized there. Surging after Europe’s opens has extended to attack 2356.00, retracing every last tick of the missile-triggered plunge.
If, then…
Now we know why that last sell signal appeared yesterday afternoon. It’s now being reported that “chatter” had begun already about the impending air strike. The reaction’s plunge re-retested last week’s lows. Isolating it to the overnight is still capable of launching a substantial rally — targeting yesterday’s 2364.50 unfinished business, Wednesday’s 2375.00 overbought RSIs, and higher. Of course, the re-retest isn’t an optimal bottom. Dismissing the redundancy to being only a headline reaction doesn’t often dismiss the market’s urge to play it out. “Good” news out overnight about Greece, and the Employment Situation report comes pre-open, two catalysts that could change the conversation to allow a recovery, at least opening above 2350.50 and preferably already above 2357.50. Otherwise, not rallying through the open and not holding yesterday afternoon’s 2349.50 low would target 2321.00 and 2321.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There are no preliminary indications ahead of an Employment Situation report.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.]