The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Optimism surging.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s brief surge to 2454.00 had given a glimpse of what could be accomplished intraday. But having retraced it all, buyers first had to absorb the open’s probe under the 2445.25 overnight low [view a video description of the setup here]. This completed a bullish setup that all but required retesting the overnight high. It was retested coming out of the noon hour, also fulfilling the next higher objective above 2448.00. Extending through it hesitated upon attacking the next higher objective at 2461.00. A last-minute dip to 2453.00 was retraced entirely.

Overnight action’s new info…
Recovering Wednesday’s late dip soon extended through the Globex open to attack the afternoon’s highs. Ranging narrowly there into and out of Europe’s opens had dipped to the consolidation’s 2457.00 lower-end. Then a two-hour rally extended to fresh highs at 2465.00. It was corrected down to 2460.00 as the Euro tumbled.

If, then…
It has been two powerful up days since noting Tuesday evening that N. Korea’s missile launch may have been the bullish development the market could have “hoped” for. Wednesday rallied 15 points from Tuesday’s 2445.00 close, 17-18 points off of its opening dip. Tuesday’s 22-point low-to-high intraday rally (27 points off the overnight low) was mostly retracing its gap down, and netted only a 2-3 point gain on the day. I highlighted in the latest Market Tour that Tuesday’s ~2426.00 opening low and yesterday afternoon’s ~2460.00 high are essentially equidistant from Tuesday’s pre-missile 2443.50 close. This is a 100% swing, and it is no more likely than was a 100% recovery of the knee-jerk selling to reward buyers that had absorbed it. Either of those should extend to its next Fiboinacci value. The next higher likely objective above 2461.00 is 2469.00, which coincides with downtrending resistance off of July’s high. Any higher, and the “corrective bounce” label would get pretty thin.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2461.75 would be likely to trigger the 2460.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2457.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday Thursday August 31 so it’s the last trading day of the month and often there are position jockeying influences undercurrents overt currents that can influence price action especially into the afternoon we have the employment situation report tomorrow and we had a teepee yesterday Challenger job got report this morning jobless claims at 8:30 and that’s just on the job front there’s also Chicago PMI Chicago PMI is interesting because it comes out at 9:45 publicly it’s released privately to the institutional investors several minutes prior to that it’s not a vitamin or sell that is thing the reaction to the privately released report tends to be repeated or extended when released publicly so keep that in mind I don’t see any fed speakers scheduled doesn’t mean there aren’t any interesting night overnight you know first of all just contact we were on our way back down we were at least needing to dip to the 2729 area when Tuesday hopefully after the clothes Kim Jeong Hoon North Korea North Korea triggered launched a missile over Japan and sent everybody into a tizzy dad to 2421 ultimately Post open to 26 x 26 25 27 29 and then rallied a lot off the low Tuesday just a little bit into positive territory but in devising of territory after being down a lot and yesterday’s opening dip saved when had been reaction down probing 2454 having held 38 from or recover 38 from testing 2729 putting in the play 48 putting in the plate 54 here’s that overnight 54 that was saved by the opening set up a Globex set up and we went through the next hour objective being 2461 2460 was attacked yesterday and 2460 actually back under 24 5675 would have put that away 2461 would have been shelved and we would have been playing defense had the by its environment exit probe it had Final hours entry probed it wasn’t until very late when we knew it was going to be temporary actually could have been deeper but it was returned to the clothes pencil 21 stays alive and in fact overnight 2461 ultimately Play Pretty bullish on that get out of of 6425 through the open and then we’re looking at the bias parameters biased parameters for the morning which 6075 being tested here as support is the bicep signal 6160 75 bicep Target at 6625 but really the next higher objective 66061 song The Way if 61 is recovered the next higher resistance is really 69 which interesting Lee comes in at or coincides today with downtrending pivotal resistance off the highs actually bisecting the high that’s the point of a pivotal resistance line so trigger by ass up and we could really if we can get out of the open hasn’t put it on here not just above 63 but above 6464 25 could get to 69 that’s when the next threat comes in and having rallied considerably two days in a row having rally not just not a lot Tuesday but a lot of buying pressure expended anyway from the overnight low and intraday low and then following through yesterday this being the third day of such a rally if it’s one-sided and seemingly optimistic of really optimistic perhaps we can get to 69 today we could also get back down to 50 today 50 50 we could see big reversal pattern intraday today if 69 is tested and held early enough that sellers can still come in especially ahead of a three-day holiday weekend that’s one set up if the open isn’t being maintained if there’s another one of those setups like yesterday greeted the open after probing her overnight at work why we’re quite a ways away from the overnight low the overnight low was still lower it was still 10 points under the overnight High don’t worry about that on this pattern but it’s a different pattern is very shallow support area that was easily or more easily broken before yesterday’s open where is this is a pretty wide relatively wide support area it’s also and also has more pessimism in it having stopped pessimistically short of yesterday’s high where the shallow consolidation trying to support Tuesday night’s reversal was optimistic it was probing above Monday’s high they’re both Tuesdays High soap probably not going to get the same set up this morning that we had yesterday he even if there’s a reversal down there if it were a reversal down that far so the question would be whether back into yesterday’s Post open again it’s all within the context of being a corrective bounce question where does it finish correcting or the sellers feel like coming back in remember that the whole recovery from Tuesday’s Tuesday’s fabricated low the artificial low was 100% swing through yesterday’s high that’s just not going to be the end of a correction but now we’re getting into end of Correction levels alright other markets as I mentioned the Euro was taking it hard extending down it is testing one 1957 1850 so we’re back down into this range back down into the original Buy Signal for this extended Lake needs to recover deposited territory today to avoid a deeper pulled back its second consecutive lower close Ludy also still under pressure with a bounce a minute 79-45 the pound is weaker a relatively fresh low but that doesn’t change that there’s a gap up above all prioritize and wants to be filled let alone that part of that session was a confirmed Breakout so it’s a pretty good spot to hold when 2865 having been there by signal good candidate for a low of the fullback and the Odyssey which and already indicated by its failed probes above 79-65 resistance that gets head and shoulders inverted Head and Shoulders move was slowing and had a big down day yesterday kind of creeping lower here not rejecting that big down day another words so the lower end of that and shoulders likely to be probed gold it a flash crash last night it’s recovered entirely at least entirely to sit back about 1350 that needs to hold as long as it holds back  .