The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Optimistic-er.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s open had attacked Wednesday’s 2628.75 lows to within 1 tick. That’s closely enough for a durable bottom to require actually probing and then recovering from a lower low. Optimism prevented completing a low, soon rallying instead to trigger the 2634.25 bias-up. Optimism persisted as its 2641.75 target was met that morning. More optimism prevented an immediate reaction by ranging narrowly through the noon hour. Interrupting the 2-point range was a blip-up that touched the afternoon’s 2643.50 bias-up signal. No-bias triggered, allowing a dip to the 2636.50 bias-down signal, which held despite the bias environment having lapsed, Optimism influenced the final hour’s bounce back up to the morning’s bias-up 2641.75 target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Still firming into the Globex open, a narrow 2-3 point range began from touching 2644.00. Eventually resolving up and extending to 2648.50 is now reacting down 3 points — still optimistically 2-4 points above yesterday’s highs.

If, then…
The not-so secret word for today is “Optimism.” And the question for today is whether its sponsorship is strong-handed, or weak. Any sentiment that is expressed relentlessly ahead of a weighty event can often be a contrarian indicator of how the market will actually and/or ultimately resolve. This morning’s Employment Situation report is one such event. Yesterday’s rally isn’t a clue. It began optimistically when a little more pessimism could have formed a more constructive bottom. And the intraday rally only fulfilled its buying pressure at the morning’s bias-up target, and didn’t recover any relevant level that would have triggered higher targets. The most important clue will be whether the open exceeds or holds the test of a relevant level. Unless and until triggering a bias signal, the relevant levels are probably 2647.75 above, and 2638.75 below.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary levels aren’t normally considered ahead of an Employment Situation report. But 2647.75 and 2638.75 are discussed above.

Phonetic dictation…
coming to a close but it is not over yet we have the employment situation report this morning and we have a situation where a potentially it’s being addressed greeted overly optimistic Lee optimism is not even from a contrarian perspective necessarily bearish optimism of course is a necessary element to rallying the extent degree in other words of that rally depends on how much that optimism can be reinforced generally it’s reinforced by overcoming pessimism optimism status that’s how much pessimism is out there the last less that needs that can be overcome that can be converted into buying so at this point yesterday is premature not being able to prevent the biceps and extended do it that morning come so close at the open and this is after having overnight again it didn’t prevent over or excessive or inpatient buying from ruling the morning containing the day but notice we get some other markers very narrow hovering at the highs not on a reaction down you can sort of see a glimpse of that when the bicep signal is touched by a reaction in the environment environment and there wasn’t any longer a requirement to hold that as support optimism is back up to the mornings bicep Target so optimism that didn’t gain tractionCountry Day High ranging narrowly from there even more narrower even there or sorry or has nearly but in any case ranging near Ali and not even waiting until waiting until the Europe’s opens before extending higher also not responding to Europe’s opens very much can see a little bit of EKG action here but the extension higher never the less briefly to a new Hive not really getting any signs of excessive pessimism so best guesses here which is really what the employment situation report is which is why I don’t generally have preliminary indications ahead of the number best guesses here is 4775 going to be irrelevant level if tested tested pre-open but if it’s test continues or persists between that window that ends when the when the cash option open is added to the opening 15 minutes of all 10:30 but since we have that report coming about an hour or 45 minutes we certainly want to 15 minutes beginning an hour and 15 minutes between the 8:30 and the end of the 9:45 may be triggering can’t dismiss the potential this being a Friday and Friday optimism is being expressed through Fridays open let alone and still not being rejected that has a good chance of carrying the day to whatever degree maybe like yesterday expressing it all in the morning before dying on the vine but still expressing it in the morning and maintaining that signal through relevant Windows probably looking at 5250 5350 let’s just say 53 as a likely objective 253 as a likely objective to the upside anything higher than that we can get out of here to retest 6725 73 potential if the reaction yesterday early enough to be the so opening under it under 35 or 36 won’t necessarily predict again with Fridays 2 days Ovilla quiddity impending start to see a major Paradigm Shift we’ve already expended all this optimism can be difficult to defend against a break under a relevant level through a relevant window by the way through a relevant window to suggest that alright and plenty of still out of attractions below there’s a 3.0go with other markets gold extending down overnight that’s not a breakout or a confirmation as well see it is and silver was but it is kind of a runaway decline big level was finally met yesterday after I publish the day we spotted at 12:53 that’s not holding keep in mind the volatility potential here you know this is the volatility not that it’s level is very meaningful anymore October’s employment situation report the prior or two months prior there was a big volatile day as well unemployment situation report silver also extending lower overnight but not so substantially not so durably and actually trading higher did it get there as close actually 215 65 15 70 which was the target range so interesting way and silver by the way it had its requirement for a eventual third lower closed breakout confirmation eventual third lower clothes for field yesterday but that’s not a bottoming pattern and then gold needs to break out above range closing the last couple days would be initially favorable still has some proving to do to establish it’s not a false break on a gaap up rally going but the more durable bottom in this pattern would fight off would defend against and close positive and that’s not being considered at this moment long Bond flat after having first challenged range overnight so we are discussing yesterday morning at this time and despite bouncing plummeting on the consensus is just a reaction alone to talk of infrastructure spending and triggering closing under the cells have been that was a pretty late so there’s some reason to be suspicious regardless overnight but this is also the timing also makes that kind of Decatur and that this is pessimism ahead of the employment situation report so we’ll take credibly any reaction to this point we do need to first of all of her clothes under yesterday’s trigger that’s the first step to bullishness the next step to being able to view this action as foolish is to actually recover the one 5406 5408 origin of that break it does look like the origin maybe that helps a little more substantial not only the 5680 resistance but also 5740 that had been the Buy Signal to that pull back limit when it was tested coming up on a couple weeks ago and then triggered briefly that does have an opportunity here I shouldn’t dismiss that potential for this on a close above 5740 shouldn’t dismiss that potential for a 57-42 basically turn this into an island last couple days that were otherwise otherwise developed under the pole back limit it’s actually the most likely scenariothat’s basically the stop closing about 57-42 any kind of short in this range looking for a fresh load 5545 450 550 plus minus the nickel natural gas responding up yesterday’s eia report from a position of strength but turned it down anyway I had already got down so really tough it was and I shouldn’t say a position of strength so much is not a position of weakness because it hadn’t yet reverse them at the Muppet at least head tested for filled and held at Target the 70 days the same days action ahead of the report is not telling but it wasn’t recovered so what we’re looking for here is some backing and filling to help form a bottom what were being on the lookout for a second consecutive lower close because that was a multi-session range Tuesday and Wednesday so Thursday’s breakout which it is a breakout is confirmed by the second consecutive lower close today that does away with Annie bottoming potential anytime soon having delayed its objective overly fulfilled it that is a confirmation on Wednesday so we’re not looking for a low and here anytime soon but also because there’s a third lower close entrenched in there somewhere I can afford to bounce bounce it should resolve down yesterday news and distractions generally surrounding this or that it’s not going to help the timing the timing is all over the place not a great candidate for trading Looney doesn’t seem interested to make an island of yesterday’s break really helping to confirm 1815 118 20 this is really the outside limit to any kind of fluctuation now now that sellers opportunity what could have been alright I’ll see you there

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