The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Pavlov’s dog got loose.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted at the overnight range’s upper-end. A choppy, wide overnight range, indicating flip-flopping between polarized opinions. a Tuesday afternoon’s sellers had gained traction, so not gapping up above a prior high would doom to failure any rally attempt. The open did rally, and then the morning, and finally the knee-jerk reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, totaling 23 points from the open up to 2747.00. The bias environment exit reversed polarity, apparently delivering quite a shock as the balance of the session plunged 47 points to test the next lower objective down to 2700.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending down to 2693.50 through the futures close initially fell further to 2682.00 through the Globex open. Gradually recovering through the night greeted the Globex opens back at 2693.50. Cautious strength has gotten more daring, now having extended up to 2708.75. That’s back above Tuesday’s late low, and stretching the room for noise around a 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s last downleg (the post-position-squaring window). It’s resistance.

If, then…
Haven’t three consecutive rejected early rallies yet conditioned the market not to rally early? It seems that one of Pavlov’s dogs has gotten loose overnight, but he’s only reached the property’s fencing — resistance being tested by this overnight bounce. This could become an Isolation setup, by greeting Thursday’s open back within yesterday’s range and thereby isolating the probe under its lows to the overnight. Isolation setups tend to be durable reversals. Pavlov’s dog won’t hear the open’s bell if he’s already escaped over the fence. Ending the pullback from last week’s highs, whether to retrace the pullback or to resume the rally, in either case would rally today. Otherwise, not triggering the Isolation setup after fully forming it could be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2709.00would be unlikely to trigger the 2710.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2701.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2695.00 bias-down signal.