The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Pop, chop, then drop?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday extended Wednesday’s rally with the help of an early start after Wednesday’s close. Its push up to 2655.00 into the Globex open was corrected overnight and recovered into Thursday’s open. A shallower post-open dip was quickly recovered to resume the rally. Its potential up to 2677.00 was exploited almost entirely at the afternoon’s late high, gaining traction for its effort. The final hour’s dip met and held its 2664.00 target before firming 2-3 points into the cash session close. Futures retraced the rest on the way to 2677.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
The catalyst for recovering from Thursday’s late dip was AMZN earnings. AMZN soared to new highs, but S&Ps pulled back to test and retest 2666.00, resisted by 2672.00 above — the upper-end is being retested now. The hot-and-cold relationship shouldn’t be surprising. The period before individual equity earnings events are mostly inhibiting to the broader market, which the late pullback expressed. The dip rid the market of weak longs and trapped shorts, while injecting a bit of contrarian pessimism. The period before individual equity earnings events are rarely influential to the broader market, which the overnight range has expressed.
If, then…
Probing fresh highs this morning was already likely when yesterday’s final hour was entered above its bias environment highs. That completed a setup, indicating that the rally had gained traction for its efforts. Holding the late dip to its 2664.00 target helped by correcting the rally. The intraday rally had stopped short of its 2677.00 potential, which also helped. The post-close surge that fulfilled the potential was too late to matter. Unless the open fails to hold a retest of 2664.00, and triggers bias-down. Otherwise, slightly higher fresh highs remain likely this morning. And fresh highs this morning remain vulnerable to being reversed down through the afternoon. Until reversing down, fresh highs this morning would be vulnerable to extending higher into the weekend, next targeting 2693.00 and 2703.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2664.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2661.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2777.00 would be likely to trigger the 2671.25 bias-up signal.