The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Right where we left it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The air pocket under 2495.50 made itself obvious Monday morning. N. Korea war talk triggered a plunge through it that reached the next lower “lower prior highs” at 2485.00-2486.00. Three bounces up to 2492.50 finally broke higher during the position-squaring window, but only to touch 2495.50 at the cash session close. Even then, extending to 2498.25 through the futures settlement was too little, too late. The break lower gained traction, despite leaving “unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2503.00 objective to be met eventually.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex session’s first order of business was to retrace the position-squaring window’s surge by sliding to 2492.75. The balance of the night has ranged sideways up to 2497.50, centered around 2495.50.
If, then…
Yesterday’s late surge hasn’t been rejected or reversed. It has been retraced, albeit not entirely and not sustainably. But neither has the surge been extended any higher. A morning rally remains possible, but probably only if it’s obviously underway at the open or soon after. Delaying any rally effort could start getting top-heavy quickly, and become attracted back down toward yesterday’s lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2495.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2498.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2492.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2490.00 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market to or let’s go through I think pretty quickly there’s really one big question that is facing the market right now and that is did it or didn’t it the it being a break under 9550 yeah there was a air pocket under 9550 it was probed there is a multi-session range from which that air pocket is derived right here I think I got that about right that air pocket was on the upside well lower price of the time singular numerical representation of its upper end was 9550 it was tested once and once it was tested again became Overkill just a matter of time before it would break and the lower-end being the first attraction usually being probed this is how I describe it last week it would happen and typically then bouncing back to that lower end at the defined by 9125 9250 that’s actually right here and then the resolution in the resolution is what tells us whether this break has legs weather gained traction the resolution needs to recover that end of the range 9550 it looks like it did right is what matters and that singular numerical representation of what was the upper end of that multi-session range that the find price action yesterday wasn’t recovered through the right to 9550 and even then it was wasn’t anywhere near there by the time we got to within three minutes of the meeting it was we can continue it continued buying all the way up to 97 + 50 even 9825 through the through the Futures open or closed Globex open so it didn’t get anywhere for it and now overnight they haven’t done anything except it’s a 60% retracement back to yesterday but that may be stopping optimistically short so which but if that optimistic Lee is going to attract any other overly optimistic buyers it needs to be obvious through the open so if the open is immediately rallying it would be credible for extending the open is not immediately rallying it won’t be credible for extending it would be pretty quickly and I don’t necessarily there’s no requirement to just suddenly collapse but the attraction if top-heavy if not attracting reinforcements the attraction is back into yesterday’s range probably something on the order of 2490 you can see it right here at 38.2% retracement back into the rain maybe even deeper may be attacking the lower end of the range there’s four pieces of data that are released at 10 and one of them is influential but for simultaneously have all of them anyway there’s a lot going on this morning North Korea’s seems to be not impressive or off the radar so to speak of the market will say they tend to jump up and try to get attention whenever lately whenever that’s been the case so don’t count on that anyway so those are the challenges if we can get a rally going over there at 2503 but the base because 2495 50 wasn’t recovered in time if it was recovered at all is the basis not able to launch a durable recovery you can still on Bounce but only temporary one alright overnight to fully retrace the actual but the actual that preceded the rally not all the way but it has been touched so I would anticipate the entirety of it will be as we’ve been expecting it’s a little late now so we didn’t get a bounce that would have been the corrective bounce limit and it was sort of got something but not overnight so the odds so I’m really just going to take that away that’s decline largely fulfilled at least objective the Yen still waiting on it hasn’t confirmed outstanding breaking its cell signal or probing it again it was yesterday at probing even lower overnight and see which had held a very disruptive to the overly pessimistic today being probed actually buy fresh Lowe’s so I just don’t have as you can see I don’t have a set up here I don’t have any pattern identified or signal but now having tested or testing Thursday we can identify that closing basically Thursday’s range would be by the way that’s where yesterday closed so by the way closing above closing above yesterday’s close closing positive territory in other words closing in positive territory would be credible for retesting the high alright as well silver bounce to 1715 resistance overnight because of silver once some resistance is tested needed to be and still needs to be tested intraday so gold as I say it’s a little more pronounced it bounced up to hire priority still though the Gap Gap Town needs to be tested from above so see if this gets it done Long Pond still suspicious about being able to develop as I said Shasta retested that loan out of reception of the decline button retested that low if it’s going to get done if it’s going to be were tested see if it’s retested sooner rather than later it has a better chance it actually holding and formula snow overnight a little bit firming or flat to hire just hanging on so little suspicious because it was really the market falling apart which by the way was due to a headline so already there’s some suspicion that it’s not going to be retraced for that will be another crude oil breakout session range yesterday news related geopolitical Middle East turkey a rock so is that possible it’s it’s the kind of story that could be confirmed by 55 before the same thing today and there’s no reason why it should have any better result in fact it’s coming right into what is now higher priority is Friday’s range so still looking for this to resolve down 2 – 84 close above 302 that as the bicycle because that’s the nearest that I could consider a bicycle anything shallower we don’t have any degree of confidence and momentum is actually alright any questions and I will see you there.