The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Starting on a down note.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
No WedEX had triggered ahead of Friday’s expiration so no bias was detected. But there was plenty of ranging. The open was greeted at 2756.00, having bounced overnight from retesting the 2745.00 area to attack 2761.00. Extending higher throughout the morning bias environment reached 2766.00, the session high. Trending back down throughout the afternoon bias environment tested 2754.00, the session low. The balance of the session retraced the high-to-low by 61.8% up to 2762.00. Recovering 2758.00 through the close could have been bullish, but the final 2 minutes plunged 9 points to 2753.00. Its reaction only touched 2758.00, as if to rub it in.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night has been under pressure since the open. Dipping immediately to 2751.00 was retraced to 2756.00, which is still resistance from Friday’s open. The drop soon extended, dipping quickly to 2746.00. Hovering optimistically short of the already tested and retested 2745.00 area, for awhile, eventually extended. Seven hours of narrow ranging finally broke lower. A last-gasp up to what is this morning’s 2750.00 bias-down signal was reversed down sharply to 2733.00 in 30 minutes. Its 61.8% retracement up to 2743.50 is now hovering above what is this morning’s 2740.00 bias-down target.

If, then…
The 2-1/2 days since Wednesday afternoon had been contained within a range. Probes of fresh lows were retraced. That is accumulative behavior, but not quite an accumulative pattern without a trigger. An intraday drop could have tested “lower prior highs” in the 2735.00 area and still been capable of recovering, perhaps even to trigger a reversal. Recovering an overnight drop under the range is substantially more difficult. There’s more time to get it done, but that also means a pessimistic tone will have been established early. That said, trending relentlessly overnight — especially into Monday’s open — can be reversed credibly, if immediately. And that’s still possible, not because there’s still time to get it done, but because that’s the potential of testing “lower prior highs.” Also, lacking WedEX bias could help attract price back into riday’s range. Otherwise, exiting the open without either trending up, or expending the last bit of selling pressure, would be vulnerable to retesting overnight lows, at least.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2745.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2735.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2740.00 bias-down target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal.