The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still down, but not out.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was greeted by a pullback from the 2593.50 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme.” The setup requires intraday retest, often the same day. Its pullback had tested the 2587.50 overnight low with ample timing to break lower. But bouncing into the open recovered to touch the overnight high, neutralizing its attraction above. The overnight high held, as did the morning’s 2591.50 bias-up signal. The balance of the morning slid sharply to test the morning’s bias-down signal down to 2580.75, neutralizing its attraction below. Flat-to-higher ranging through the afternoon attacked and pierced 2587.00 as resistance through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Not breaking to fresh session lows during yesterday’s final hour was surprising. Too much of the noon hour’s bounce to “higher prior lows” had been retraced. The Globex open compensated for the delay by gapping down at least 3 points to 2584.00 and quickly extended through Tuesday’s 2580.75 low to 2579.25. Rallying into and out of Europe’s opens recovered entirely to touch Tuesday’s 2587.50 last-minute high. Flat-to-lower since then just touched 2583.00.

If, then…
The Globex probe under the intraday range forms the basis of a reversal setup. Exiting the open above a relevant high would isolate the selling sponsorship to the overnight. The paradigm shift usually improves gradually and not necessarily immediately. But it improves. Its reward would likely retest 2590.50 and probe fresh highs up to 2600.75. And since Tuesday ended with no live attraction in-play, making today unlikely to trigger a meaningful signal, any trending is likely counter-trend. So, trending intraday up to 2590.50 or 2600.75 would be vulnerable to reversing back down. Similarly, NOT trending up this morning — by the isolation setup, or otherwise — would target 2577.00-2579.00, and also be vulnerable to reversing back up.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2581.50 would be likely to trigger the 2582.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2585.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays Morning Market to her overnight interesting gap down and yes I remember yesterday afternoon the balance from the mornings drop you can see this all the way on the right and bounce when the mornings drop had recovered through the noon hour and into the bias environment entry touching higher priority as we knew there was a ceiling there but as I said on the way down when enough sufficient amount that is of the bounce it been retraced too much actually and then retraced to be just a natural correction there would have been surprising not to probe not to resolve and fresh session Lowe’s literally the same session that was surprising that we didn’t resolve and fresh and lows not that buyers did anything with that they didn’t accomplish anything that hadn’t already been accomplished by the mornings bounce into the noon hour through the noon hour or I should say the noon hour is Bounce last minute lip up by the time we got to within 3 minutes of the cash Station close though already or still holding within 87 still holding basically the initial balance but the market makes up for those things I compensated for the delay by gapping down and extending down there’s the fresh session low I say that but I don’t at all mean that it’s not a fresh and low it failed sellers were too late to qualify so that means two things one of two things really that either so there’s just aren’t strong handed we knew that at the close of yesterday’s session as I said did not leave any attraction outstanding so it’s unlikely to suddenly trigger a signal today it’s also likely that if it tries trending trending not just at the initial attempt but will be done and we’ll be reversed so here’s maybe a glimpse of that trying to Trend overnight there’s the fresh low but holding that loan out that hasn’t resulted yet or recovered yet above a prior hi it’s trying but it hasn’t yet recovered above a prior high and if that Pryor High holds through the open which I assume if it’s going to hold through the open it’ll already be reversing down it’s an old city open we’re probably already reversing down back we are already reacting down and the effect of that is the three minutes right now not recovering through the open will be likely to retest the overnight low and appropriate probably at least a 79 2579 that’s been the minimum objective I think that’s Antiquated now but 78 7778 again unlikely to signal so likely to recover yeah this is a Wednesday we haven’t seen that many Wednesday in this environment but that would be a Wednesday reversal get something that not knowing is not within the range but actually position to get something done to be productive to trigger something and reverse it at off and Wednesday reversals reverse more than or more than once what kind of equilibrium here that can have multiple intraday reversals but not today but attempt to break probably doesn’t extend probably is recovered probably in the opposite direction the objective of the 6.75825 9050 we’re probably going to 2601 essentially but again trending trending today doesn’t matter what it accomplishes while trending because of when it’s trying to try and will likely fail as for starting an uptrend I’ve noticed that since yesterday’s low has been probed overnight probing yesterday’s range overnight exiting me open in the opposite direction above some relevant level would isolate that overnight showing sponsorship so in this case not always usually not at all but in this case that happens to be the relevant level to recover through the open happens to be positive territory so if the open is recovering and maintaining recovery in the positive territory things can get going to the upside for the rest of the morning immediately but at least gradually so those are basically two lines in the sand for the initially 2590 2601 and then potentially back down remember yesterday we had a late cell signal didn’t trigger that is but that’s pretty much 2581 50 and it’s too deep to recover so we have to go lower and probably will alright any questions about the market let me know 7633 Five Below 3035 what has formed is not necessarily a durable break lower it can be temporary but it would be obvious Meanwhile Back wood fire all in the name of accumulating taking its time to see if that can get done today he has another shot at this wasn’t confirmed Friday or after Friday’s breakout but it held its support yesterday another bite of that Apple but at this point I needs to clear the actual test of it which means fresh I close web 78-75 78-77 I’m going slow motion accident that doesn’t look like it’s still an accident unfolding is not within the context of this pattern and needs to be examined more closely at least more than once but right back up at Apple probably not another bite of that Apple probably more a successful effort if there’s a 8825silver 1690we acting up gold pull back to equally relevant level 12 7550 yesterday we acting up these are two different patterns basically because they’ve left two different types of Unfinished Business below but if gold can’t make it here there’s an attraction below to 1268 1268 50 and yeah it would neutralize an attraction to test it but the pattern itself just gets very top-heavy if that has to happen long bond has a really exploded higher I mean the steepness of the slope here is not conservative it’s aggressive to a degree gapping up but it’s still is not the kind of explosive behavior that’s needed to get out of the orbit it’s still this leg is still overlapping even with that Gap still overlapping this Pryor High so it really is not in a stage that can afford to hesitate doesn’t look like there’s any real new levels in here really pull back limit now 15314 pretty much as it had been originally 15314 irrelevant level his test never got things going to the outside but still room little bit reversing momentum down I’ll put it on here basically 15320 2022 will start getting focused on this pull-back is maybe being constructive F-150 322 but again under 153 back to the Lowe’s crude oil confirm yesterday steel rim for a natural gas getting kind of late for that would get the timing back but it’s pretty much through the morning without you will be leaving tomorrow from a position of strength good luck today.