The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Treading carefully.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s one or two rubber band stretches didn’t resolve Wednesday afternoon or through Thursday’s open. Better late than never? Overnight ranging had been expanding its upper-end to test 2620.00, where Thursday’s open was greeted. The open’s resolution was down 10 points, which was recovered only gradually, and didn’t even challenge the 2625.25 bias-up signal. The gradual recovery extended anyway, with its “no-bias trending” probing the 2634.50 bias-up target by 7 points. Correcting into the noon hour stopped short of retracing the morning’s 2625.25 bias-up signal before rallying again to 2659.50. The final hour’s proxy window started reversing down, extending through the close’s dip back into the noon hour’s consolidation at 2634.50. The afternoon’s rally was also no-bias trending, but only the morning’s 2625.25 bias-up signal is “unfinished business below” that still requires being retraced.
Overnight action’s new info…
Relatively narrow, choppy ranging persisted through midnight, repeatedly holding 2641.00, several ticks under Friday’s cash session close. At least bottoms had been rising, but then a drop into Europe’s opens attacked the earlier overnight lows down to 2632.00. Its gradual recovery peaked at the range’s midpoint before resolving down more steeply to fresh overnight lows attacking 2628.00.
If, then…
Friday’s final hour reversal hasn’t been retraced, let alone reversed, but neither has it extended under a prior low. Specifically, the 2627.00-2629.00 prior lows that contained the morning bias environment exit, the noon hour, and the noon hour exit. Traction gained by the afternoon rally is meanwhile intact, and not yet breaking lower through the open would make the morning likelier to bounce. Extending Friday’s bounce is possible, but not at all assured. Similarly, breaking under the overnight range after already coming within 60-90 minutes of the open could be only a rubber band stretch that snaps back up — especially if that initial stretch were to touch the 2625.25 attraction below. Otherwise, maintaining a break lower would target a retest of the prior Friday’s 2585.00 low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2631.25 would be likely to trigger the 2635.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2642.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.