The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Try, try again.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Head & Shoulders, or not Head & Shoulders, that is the question. Sunday night’s surge up to 2474.75 began to form the pattern’s right shoulder. A post-open plunge to 2465.25 tried to complete it. But that was still about 2 points short of the neckline. The balance of the session worked its way 7 points higher through a volatile afternoon, leaving just enough time for a last-minute dip to 2467.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Déjà vu? Yesterday’s last-minute reaction down extended down another 3 ticks to attack 2466.00. China headlines soon triggered a surge that attacked 2476.00 — a full point above the prior overnight high. A full point higher, and an entire timing window earlier. Sunday night’s surge hadn’t been triggered until Europe’s opens. But Europe’s opens last night was barely noticed as the surge continued consolidating down to repeatedly test this morning’s 2473.00 bias-up signal as support. Probing higher a little later soon peaked within 3 ticks of this morning’s 2478.00 bias-up target, soon reversing back down into the consolidation to yesterday afternoon’s “lower prior highs” at 2471.25, still several points positive.

If, then…
Monday’s final hour didn’t break the afternoon’s range. But it did expand it, in both directions. So, although the pattern didn’t fulfill potential for resolving before the close, it wasn’t for lack of trying. Expectations for gapping open either way Tuesday have been made clearer overnight. Gapping up to prior highs must still extend through the open, the one bullish feature missing from yesterday’s gap up. Chances are better today for extending higher because similar setups tend to resolve differently when appearing sequentially. That’s assuming last night’s surge is maintained into the open, or already extended higher.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2475.00 would be likely to trigger the 2473.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2470.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning it’s Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s morning market tour kind of deja vu all over again no remember how we greeted yesterday there had been at Europe’s opens which was greeted by an ascending triangle off the overnight lows there’s been a surge and that surge of it pulled back a little was recovered and greeted yesterday’s opens above Friday’s High’s only about Friday’s eyes but in any case the Gap up above Friday size did not extend her it was maintained through the open and then it resolved down pretty aggressively into the bias environment which then held and the balance of the afternoon but for the final minutes the balance of the session actually recovered sporadically probing or piercing positive territory book 24-70 right here didn’t maintain it into the clothes and into the Futures closed it back down and that’s interesting because based on the mornings action it was obvious that this pattern wants to resolve this does not want to sit still we see that now and then when there’s a tight range or just ranging whether or not tight we see signs that this just does not want to sit here and one of those signs that we saw yesterday was that the afternoon did expand price action didn’t nearly range or range narrower actually expanded its range that is a pattern that wants to extend or wants to break often that break is false initially in any triangle it did happen to be false last night but it got some bit of traction here but then recovered back to and through the upper end headlines from China drove this and economic dad and economic data there was some currency plays but the reaction was pretty obvious it’s pretty obvious and also took price above or at least piercing Sunday nights or Sunday night’s high that extended into pre open Monday and pull back last night or consolidation here’s Sunday nights and here’s last night’s because of the earlier timing of the surge dance China’s opens this with yeah and this was Sunday night triggered by last night any longer than yesterday morning that’s our ship and yet here we are yesterday afternoon and in this narrow range yesterday afternoon we’re able to see relatively narrow Ranger able to see signs that it is very sponsorship not just a variety of opinion which there always is but so Divergent and so strong at the Divergence that were expecting resolution soon and here it is over night or at least still trying to shake it Loose we don’t know yet whether What’s Happening Here is actually resolving up or weather like yesterday afternoon’s expanding range the range is just simply expanding again this overnight reaction down this is Europe soap it’s actually last night your UPS opens didn’t have any play really I mean you can see a little bit of just obligatory hiccup of course here’s your UPS opens right here and almost at obligatory bounce because even though there wasn’t any any big reaction to Europe’s opens an hour later there wasn’t any big reaction to Europe’s opens and so the prevailing Trend aside and just from an obligatory perspective let’s just pick it up I guess and didn’t last long on that theme came back down into the range and now by the way 2370 2473 which is this morning’s bias up signal 2478 which was attacked with in three tix at the High is threatening not to be maintained through the open yesterday’s High’s 2475 tested before they open since clearly buyers didn’t gain traction yesterday afternoon rallying this morning requires gapping up above yesterday’s highs if the very least above yesterday afternoon size can’t pronounce this leg as breaking durably lower so they don’t have to be recovered but it’s not very attractive but get out of the open above yesterday’s High’s 2475 get out of the between now and Ray’s Gap up to 2475 assuming it does would be less likely to resolve them or yesterday’s Gap up to 2475 dovers all down temporarily and then fluctuated for the day around unchanged followed by another Gap up today to 2475 that resolves down wouldn’t be likely to recover the unchanged so the first line of defense here is the gap up to 2475 and to be unlikely to reverse down camping up to 2475 butt and reversing down anyway following the same path as yesterday’s 2475 Gabba would then be unlikely to recover and range around on changed whatever if today is open gapps up or the Gap up to 2475 we would not expect the balance of the session to resemble yesterday’s maybe it backs and fills in the afternoon there is no Adam in one day but today now 1 days consolidation before reversing or extending is irrelevant it’s the next day that gives us the biggest clue so not yet reversing down today suggests are actually signals that the rally is extending silver somewhat similarly but it’s a similar principle but basically yesterday’s Gap up rather than looking at this in terms of consecutive sessions extending or not consolidating the prior sessions are we apply that template to intraday windows so yesterday is Gap up still overlapping Thursday’s High the multiple timing Windows did not extend or reject and that inertia is very dangerous at that point in the chart so there’s still room to fill the Gap back to Friday’s close and in fact that’s really what’s happening over night already and that’s without indicating momentum reversing down the pullback limit that was already in the process of being tested at Thursday’s closed that is a cell signal long Bond was weaker overnight or at least not firm trying to firm into the open no excuse at this point similarly same principle really been applied in several different ways today having extended higher Friday through this preliminary Buy Signal just a test the actual inflection point that says the trend is reversed up there’s really no tolerance for much further delay little tolerance I should say for further delay and resolving up crude oil which hit its 5010 Target yesterday went out testing it weaker overnight or at least not any firmer overnight cell signal has been raised to 4825 and their natural gas the issue Sunday night was serious downgrading and near-term weather today  .