The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Uh-oh, just another day.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s decline wasn’t immediate. At least, its immediate attempt at declining was recovered to probe fresh session highs in positive territory. But the morning bias environment resumed the decline, which extended relentlessly through the afternoon. The foregoing actually describes Tuesday and Wednesday, too. But Thursday was the first to revisit the prior week’s lows, which had held a test of 2701.50, and which there was no bullish reason to revisit. Last Wednesday night’s 2682.00 low of that original test was revisited, too. The afternoon bias environment’s 2758.50 low was retraced by a late bounce up to 2689.00, ending the day at 2776.00-2778.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially firming attacked 2685.00 before reacting back down to 2669.00. Europe’s opens didn’t fall apart, and 2685.00 was attacked again. It also reacted back down again, but more substantially to within tick of yesterday’s 2658.50 low. A couple of bounces individually and thoroughly tested what is this morning’s 2666.00 bias-down signal’s resistance. Resistance won, producing a probe under yesterday’s low by at least 1 point.

If, then…
After three consecutive sessions of trending down sharply, today’s session is shaping up to be just another day. Which doesn’t necessarily mean a fourth consecutive session of trending down sharply. But two days of impending illiquidity is introducing Friday Factors into the equation. So today’s fourth session should either trend down sharply on steroids, or else reverse up sharply at some point. The 3-week old low is an example of the latter, which reversed up sharply from a very late test of a prior low. The nearest similar support under yesterday’s lows isn’t encountered until 2634.00 and more likely 2620.00. And another late Friday save that reverses up sharply is always the least likely resolution. Let’s assume Pavlov’s work is complete, and no early bounce develops today — which we’ll assume so long as positive territory is avoided or rejected within minutes. Trending down sharply can meet one or both of those levels without reversing up, and still leave some steroids for Sunday night and Monday to continue tracking the 1987-style crash template.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2673.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2666.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2663.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.