The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Waiting for buyers.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s fresh highs up to 2446.50 were retraced to essentially unchanged at 2441.00-2442.00. Thursday’s opening bounce to 2445.00 retraced only 61.8% of the overnight highs before failing. Failing from some level was likely since Wednesday’s setup had required gapping up Thursday to extend its rally. Its failure was too late to avoid triggering bias-up, but in time to invalidate it, reversing down sharply to 2439.00. Nevertheless, overnight highs were recovered during the noon hour, and probed briefly during the final hour, closing at the morning’s 2445.00 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
An eventual blip-up pierced yesterday’s highs to touch this morning’s 2447.25 bias-up signal. Its immediate reaction down eventually extended back to 2442.00. Now its reaction is testing yesterday morning’s 2445.00 high.

If, then…
The 2451.50 prior high and its “unfinished business above” at 2454.00 are easily met this morning, if the market wants. If the market wants to reveal the rally’s strength — either by closing above prior highs on a Friday to entrench itself, or to fail a probe of prior highs as sponsorship disappears. Restrained optimism that only firms shallowly into the weekend could be bullish if prior highs are only attacked and not touched. But actual pessimism of dipping back to and through yesterday’s lows would chip away at their support, since yesterday’s highs had failed to extend — not necessarily avoiding new highs next week, but dooming them to failure.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2443.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2447.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2442.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2439.75 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour quick reminder tomorrow is a Saturday review I hope you can join us at 9:30 Eastern just like any other than Market open without the market open distraction as for today basically I’m going to do a little deeper analysis than that but essentially this Market is at a Crossroads and it’s not a Crossroads yet that says we’re heading up or down from here to hear it is a Crossroads that says the next action dictates whether the ultimate resolution is up or down what I mean is we have a Breakout does the bigger picture going back months on the es we have a break out yesterday or I’m sorry two days ago from a downtrend it wasn’t invalidated was it the multi-session break out so it doesn’t really get confirmation other than to maintain its momentum other than if it’s not invalidated there is a objective than in play Dora trace the entirety of that down track that’s the reward clear and simple for having broken that downtrend and not rejecting the break of the downtrend nothing about that speaks to the path we can know it 100% degree of certainty if we could that we’re going to at some point retest the high of this pull-back three week old High more so is that possible to do today absolutely there isn’t any single day in this to climate doesn’t contain a intraday move that if duplicated today would get us wouldn’t get us above that Pryor High you should be easy if the market or the rally that is wants to do that so the question is and add the resolution would likely be up accumulation in other words there are varying degrees but in general accumulation and that would be distribution to probe the prior high without closing above it and if the rally wanted to let us know that it intends to extend well it would be free to do that as I say being so close to the prior High on Wednesday to avoid if 39 is touched we’re probably heading to 3550 and remember there’s down there’s room down to 33 without reversing the trend down so sorry to take so long and I was like a Saturday review itself but we literally have Matrix of for possibilities here at a Crossroads and coin flip among the four four sided coin flip alright other markets like giving it to 92293 to complete a bottom or try to complete a bottom of that that needs to hold and react up of course that yesterday’s eia report prevented perhaps doing but only temporarily now overnight action is doing that overnight the Gap attacked close enough if the market wants to go with that and if this point bounce back above 3302 they won’t be any unfinished business with outstanding below any questions good luck today.