The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Be wary the obvious.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night had initially probed under the intraday low, testing support at 2792.00. Reversing up to 2806.00 was retraced 10 points down to 2796.00 before Friday’s open. That’s a lot of volatility. Friday’s expiration open continued the volatility by surging to 2808.00 and then swinging a couple of times down to 2801.00 and lower. Then, as is typical of Friday afternoons, volatility disappeared through the noon hour and most of the bias environment. But the balance of the session resumed the rally to new highs up to 2815.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
We discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review that buyers would all but disappear ahead of Monday’s open. Nervous retail sellers are likely to flood Monday’s open in their first opportunity to react to the government shutdown. Sunday night’s open gapped down to what is this morning’s 2803.75 bias-down signal, and extended immediately to 2802.00. Immediately, but also briefly, bouncing almost as quickly back up to 2809.00 and later briefly 2810.50. Eventually dipping back down to 2806.00 has reacted up again.
If, then…
The open is likely to downtick from the retail crowd’s selling pressure. Its arrival is obvious, so the question is whether it’s quickly absorbed, or extended. Extending down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, would get every benefit of the doubt for extending into the noon hour as if the bearish WedEX were influential. Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence wasn’t obvious, if it existed at all. The signal did not invert, and may as well be considered invalidated — except that it still provides a template for trending down throughout Monday morning. Later, the new trend extreme close on a Friday now requires another eventual new trend extreme close.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2805.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2803.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2809.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2812.50 bias-down signal.