The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Weekend pass.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s rally had peaked at Friday’s opening bar, 1 tick short of its 2680.75 bias-up target. Reversing down under its 2672.00 bias-up signal had put into play only a test of its 2654.00 objective — which was fulfilled at the morning’s 2651.00 low — but its 2648.25 bias-down target was met anyway during the afternoon’s drop. Despite getting sucked into the air pocket under Thursday’s range down to 2645.00, the close recovered back above 2654.00, like the morning, and prevented signaling a “hold-short.
Overnight action’s new info…
Bombing Syria during the week would have likely sent the market down sharply. Waiting until after Friday’s close at least allowed the weekend to pass, a weekend without retaliation. Sunday night’s open gapped up in relief to and through 2672.00 and extended to 2677.50. Reversing down to test 2661.00 stopped 3-4 points short of Friday’s close, which was close enough for Europe’s opens. Much of the reversal was retraced to 2675.00, which is being consolidated down to 2672.00, including a temporary blip-down to 2670.00.
If, then…
Is the overnight rally’s catalyst any more relief that Friday’s salvo may go unanswered? A steady flow of negative news items other than Syria were absorbed last week, so an actual positive development could be a very bullish catalyst. Only closing above 2672.00 would have been bullish last week before probing above it. Extending above Friday’s 2680.50 high could be bullish if maintained through a relevant timing window. But probing last week’s highs and closing back under 2672.00 could be more bearish this week than last week.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2668.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2664.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2675.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2672.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.