The First Trade… Recovery denied.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s bias-down environment began lapsing at its 1897.50 bias-down signal, and immediately launched a rally into the noon hour’s 1910.00 high. A pre-FOMC pullback to 1899.50 tried recovering. But its 10-point knee-jerk reaction up was reversed back down to test 1887.50. That soon extended much lower to 1865.00, ranging around 1873.00-1874.75 through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Quite the round trip. Holding 1873.00-1874.75 had created bounce potential up to 1982.00, which was fulfilled soon after the Globex open. Its reaction attacked 1966.00, and then rallied through Europe’s opens to attack 1896.00. Dipping from there fell back to 1882.00. And now plunging from there is testing 1873.00-1874.75.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s decline had gained traction that made it likely to extend lower this morning, but we discussed two reasons to anticipate its rejection. Confidence in the rejection depends at least upon recovering 1882.00 and 1887.50, which would put 1913.00 back in-play. But fulfilling yesterday’s late 1882.00 bounce has allowed another downleg to 1859.50… and that has become likelier with the drop back to 1873.00-1874.75.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1874.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 1882.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1885.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.