The First Trade… Relative calm.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down and extension lower had tested the 2043.00 target down to 2040.75. A corrective bounce to 2049.00 was prepared to retest the lows and potentially form a durable bottom. Satisfied sellers and a little upward momentum were leveraged by tragic news that softened Brexit’s bearish influence. The balance of the session rallied relentlessly to 2071.50. No traction was gained.

Overnight action’s new info…
After initially firming up to 2074.75, price has dipped a little into negative territory at 2065.25. Each end of the overnight range is within 3 ticks of this morning’s bias-up and bias-down signals.

If, then…
Could a retest of 2043.00 today still form a bottom as would have been done by holding its retest yesterday? Probably not without probing even lower first, to compensate for the delay. That effort would meanwhile open the door to resuming the decline. Ending the week at fresh lows is rarely rejected immediately Monday. And this afternoon will be confronted by bearish WedEX influences. Probing fresh highs this morning is possible before reversing down later. The unlikely scenario would extend higher durably.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2070.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2074.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2063.00 would be likely to trigger the 2065.00 bias-down signal