The First Trade… Remember that “V” bottom?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up and extending higher Wednesday attacked 1877.00 during the morning bias environment’s surge. Crude Oil had inspired that move, despite having put new lows into play. Both returned their gains, and matched their steep surges as fresh session lows were probed. Selling did not extend until the latest opportunity, not optimal but still credible for gaining traction to fulfill its 1848.00 potential down to 1843.50. No unfinished business above was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
There was barely any hesitation in extending down to 1832.00 well before midnight. But ranging back up to 1840.00 didn’t break until Europe’s opens. And it broke lower, sharply, first to 1809.00 which was consolidated up to 1817.00. A spike down to 1802.50 snapped back up quickly to 1818.50.

If, then…
Breaking under the morning’s lows so late yesterday had prevented the move from signaling the decline has resumed. Yet, a 44-point overnight slide just retested the 3-week old 1805.00 lows. Extending down overnight sharply and relentlessly to whatever degree is more difficult to extend post-open. By the same token, extending that overnight drop post-open — under a relevant support and through a relevant timing window — can produce a multiple of the overnight slide.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 through 1807.00 would be unlikely to extend down this morning, whether by absorbing a retest of the low or simply by rallying back up to the 1834.50 bias-down target — with potential up 1850.00. Not recovering by 9:45 from probing back under 1807.00 would be likelier to trend down through the morning.