The First Trade… Reversal city.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up had extended a little higher post-open, but only enough to retest the 2053.00 pre-open high by 5 ticks. Weakening indications and a week of reversals suggested the opening strength wasn’t durable. In fact, the balance of the session trended back down. A very late low finally filled the gap back to Thursday’s 2035.00 close by 5 ticks, then bounced to close at 2041.00-2042.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
After bleeding into intraday action Friday, last week’s reversals have now bled into overnight action. Sunday night’s choppy open eventually resolved down to retest Friday’s low and attack 2033.00. Bouncing to 2041.00-2042.00 resolved down again into and out of Europe’s opens. Retesting 2033.00 reacted back up quickly, producing a surge to 2051.50. Sideways ranging from there has been supported by 2046.00.
If, then…
Friday’s intraday decline had neutralized the attraction below back to Thursday’s close. Chipping away at the support of the week-long range’s lower-end stopped short of actually breaking support, as the test held through the close. But any break lower — especially through Monday’s open — would be credible for launching a deeper correction. By the same token, almost any firm open would be credible for returning back to the range’s highs, potentially avoiding a deeper correction to launch a breakout to new highs. The overnight drop had suggested initially that the break lower was coming. But the surge’s recovery is suggesting the latter scenario. We might not know until the open has either maintained or rejected a recovery above Thursday and Friday’s opening ranges, which is essentially 2045.50-2049.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2049.75 would be likely to trigger the 2045.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2044.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2053.50 would be likely also to recover the 2050.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.