The First Trade… Sellers at the gate.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

SPECIAL NOTE: I will be away from the screens on the afternoons of both Thursday and Friday, this week and next, Thank you for allowing me to be of personal assistance in a family matter.

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open immediately resumed Tuesday’s slide under 2185.00, to a late-afternoon low of 2168.75. A last-minute 7-point bounce peaked 1 point short of 2177.00, which had been the decline’s likely objective. Recovering it would have allowed the drop since Tuesday’s open to be considered only a temporary correction on the way to new highs. Closing under 2177.00 instead suggests the massive topping pattern we’ve been monitoring is now rolling over.

Overnight action’s new info…
Relatively narrow sideways ranging continued to hold 1 point under 2177.00 resistance. Sliding into and out of Europe’s opens attacked yesterday’s 2168.75 low to within 1 point at 2169.75. Bouncing back up to 2175.00 has been retraced to within 1 point of 2169.75..

If, then…
Gapping open Thursday back above 2177.00 would not be as relevant as if Wednesday had closed above it already. Rejecting Wednesday’s close under 2177.00 would now require gapping up above the 2180.50-2181.25 area. For starters. Any shallower strength would be likely to resume the decline for a third consecutive session — and probably more aggressively as participants start getting the point. Otherwise, attempting to reject the decline wouldn’t ensure extending back up to new highs, and would remain vulnerable to attempting another downleg anyway.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2170.00 would be likely to trigger the 2171.50 bias-down signal at 10:!5. Exiting the open above 2177.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2180.50 would be likely to trigger the 2178.75 bias-up signal.