The First Trade… Sellers at the gates, again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Probing under Monday’s 2263.50 intraday low was isolated to the overnight by recovering it before Tuesday’s open. Which would have been bullish the recovery were maintained post-open, but it wasn’t. The open’s dip retested the 2259.50 overnight low. That bearish setup didn’t prevent rallying back into positive territory at 2274.00, but it did prevent maintaining the rally. Tuesday afternoon retraced retraced it back down to the opening range’s upper-end at 2263.25. A late bounce was also retraced down to 2263.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially ranging sideways around the close up to 2265.50, a dip soon attacked the 2259.50 intraday low to within 1 tick. Ranging sideways at the lows through Europe’s opens finally bounced back to the open’s 2265.50 high. And slightly back above Tuesday’s intraday low.
If, then…
The upper-end of Tuesday’s opening range was retraced by the afternoon’s drop. That’s not much of a consequence for weak-handed sponsorship. Probing under the retracement’s 2263.25 low was still likely, as was retesting Tuesday morning’s 2259.50 low. Both were done Tuesday night, essentially, as last night’s low stopped 1 tick “optimistically short” of the prior lows. Not being a new low, opening positively this morning’s can’t isolate it back above Tuesday afternoon’s 2263.25 low. It’s still early enough to recover further, and to open back above yesterday’s late 2269.25 bounce. That could be rewarded by extending to 2272.00 and then to new highs. Otherwise, an actual fresh low at 2257.50 is likely. And Tuesday’s intraday bounce may have lengthened the timing of this pullback’s low beyond this morning. As well, its likelier target is at least 2247.50, if not also 2235.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2265.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2261.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2258.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.