The First Trade… Sellers nearly marginalized.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s overnight rally to 2261.00 had been largely retraced before the open, and then fully retraced to Friday’s 2254.00 cash session close right after the open. That’s a lot of selling pressure to expend without yet even turning negative. In fact, it was all available selling pressure. Bullish WedEX’s influence exploited the vacuum and launched a surge back to the overnight high. Then another surge probed higher to attack 2264.00. A pullback into noon was largely recovered throughout the afternoon bias environment. The recovery seemed poised and even intent to resume the morning’s rally, when headlines triggered a complete retracement back to the morning’s low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Already bouncing through 2259.00-2260.00 through the cash session and futures close, Globex immediately firmed further to 2262.00. A narrow 2-point range broke higher at Europe’s opens, soon blipping-up to attack 2265.00. Its reaction down to 2262.00 has recovered to now probe higher up to 2265.50.
If, then…
The rally’s excuse for delay Friday afternoon was the president’s press conference stealing focus. Its excuse Monday afternoon was headlines of terrorist actions around the globe. The validity of either of these conditions is irrelevant, so long as this is true — Much has been thrown at this market since last Tuesday’s 2273.00 high, and yet it is repeatedly attacked to 5-9 points. This price proximity alone is enough to be confident in the high’s retest. That’s only helped by Tuesday’s proximity to the weekend holiday’s seasonal bullishness. Not already rallying at Tuesday’s open would have been vulnerable to at least attempting a deep corrective dip. But the open is indicated to at least test yesterday’s highs, if not also surge higher. A post-open reaction down may be the only path lower before next week.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2264.00 would be likely to trigger the 2262.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2259.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.