The First Trade… Shifting gears.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally and Monday morning’s surge did their best to portray a “Game On” message. But it was “game over” as the surge peaked at the 2189.50 bias-up target before the morning bias environment’s exit. Ranging narrowly through the balance of the bias environment persisted through the noon hour and the afternoon bias environment. The final hour suddenly slipped 3 points to end the cash session at 2187.00, just above the opening range.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late dip extended down to greet the Globex open at 2186.00. That didn’t stop the decline, which extended down to 2183.00. Europe’s opens triggered a quick 2-point slide to 2181.00. Consolidating there for two hours suddenly spiked up to 2186.00. That has been retraced almost entirely.

If, then…
Yesterday’s 2184.75 opening gap overlapped prior highs, so it’s retest from below isn’t required. Yesterday’s 2187.00 close might require being retested eventually if today’s open were to create a gap. Filling the gap back down to Friday’s 2180.00 close without extending down would help the attraction above. But not assure it, as gaps outstanding below at 2172.00 and 2160.00 would be in-play. Meanwhile, in case today’s open gaps down, filling the gap back up to yesterday’s close has no assurance — and even less reason — to resume the rally. So, in every case, the burden of proof is on buyers.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2186.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2190.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2183.25 would likely at least to test the 2181.25 bias-down signal by 10:15. Exiting the open under 2179.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.