The First Trade… The slide gets slippier.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 5-6 point gap down to 2036.50 extended down through the morning to test 2029.00. Bouncing to within 2-3 ticks of 2036.50 said its goodbyes, and then slid to 2025.00 before the close. A late bounce stopped 2-3 ticks of 2030.75, whose recovery could have invalidated the breakout.

Overnight action’s new info…
The slide resumed without delay, and has extended down without relent. Eventually ranging around this morning’s 2019.25 bias-down target has touched 2017.50.

If, then…
Two days ago I listed the reasons why a downturn had become overwhelmingly likely. I included the warning that not quickly exploiting the list would become likelier to resume the rally. Last night’s slide suggests that window may be closed. But now two new factors might inhibit the ‘s near-term momentum. First is the 2017.00-2020.00 overnight lows, which we had discussed already as natural support. The “lower prior highs” could interrupt the likelier 2009.00 objective. Second is the overnight slide’s relentlessness, a setup which always is vulnerable to inverting at the open. Put all of this into the context of being hours away from a 3-day holiday weekend. and at least we can give more credibility to any opening trending.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2017.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2019.25 bias-down target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2028.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2025.25 bias-down signal at all.