The First Trade… Slip.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon’s rally gained no traction for its effort, such as it was.bullish. Closing action retested the morning’s 2184.25 peak, recovering from the noon hour’s 2178.00 oversold low. This was after the session avoided backing-and-filling when its prior session had not gained traction either. No unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-slightly lower ranging touched 2181.25 before bouncing to within 2-3 ticks of Thursdays close. That coincided with Europe’s opens, which triggered a steep, deep plunge attacking 2175.00. Its reaction up to 2179.50 has been retraced almost entirely back to the plunge’s low.
If, then…
This afternoon’s Bullish WedEX influence should start becoming evident after the noon hour. That’s going to be difficult if that same window is not yet allowed to rally, which it won’t be. Yesterday afternoon’s rally didn’t gain traction for its effort, so not gapping up makes rallying unlikely until the final 60-90 minutes. And the open is certainly not indicated to gap up… Meanwhile, gapping down under yesterday afternoon’s low after having trended up into the close is going to form a “session-long decline” setup. This instance is based on very small measurements, and its size does matter, so I’m not letting it override indications by other setups.
I would suggest giving sellers every benefit of the doubt for the morning if the open trends down. I’ll give sellers every benefit of the doubt this afternoon if the morning trends down. And Monday could be very ugly if the session trends down. Avoiding bias-down is critical to resuming the rally at all.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2174.25 would be likely to trigger the 2177.00 bias-down signal at 10P:15. Exiting the open above 2179.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2177.00 bias-down signal.