The First Trade… (AND A SPECIAL NOTE)

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: TODAY’S PRE-MARKET TOUR WILL BEGIN 15 MINUTES LATE AT 9:10 AM ET.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 24-point plunge converted a gap up into a retest of prior lows.Such is the risk of one-sided overnight sentiment. The rally’s challenge was to immediately extend above 2266.50, but breaking immediately back under 2265.00 began signaling that had become unlikely. Bias-downs were signaled, targets were met, and also exceeded to put into play “unfinished business below” at 2243.00. Attacking it to within 2 ticks pre-close didn’t qualify as fulfilling it, but the close was in its orbit.

Overnight action’s new info…
Relatively narrow sideways ranging developed largely in positive territory. The 2245.00-2247.00 range eventually broke lower and slide down to 2242.25 at Europe’s opens. Firming since then has attacked 2247.00 as resistance.

If, then…
The attraction to 2243.00 has been neutralized. Barely piercing it doesn’t suffice for the retest of oversold RSIs, and doesn’t neutralize so much time and energy expended in the interim. Nevertheless, isolating its test to the overnight would be credible for launching a rally into the weekend. Isolating a deeper retest that recovers entirely during the open would be credible, too. Otherwise, not rejecting its post-open test could find an air pocket below. And trending down into the weekend would next target 2215.00 and 2205.00..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2243.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2242.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the under 2248.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2248.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2250.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.