The First Trade… Start and stop selling.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up extended to within 3 ticks of its 2144.00 renewed bias-up target. Reversing down through the noon hour to 2126.50 only barely filled the gap back down to Thursday’s close, never really turning negative. Retracing 61.8% of that drop attacked 2135.00 before retracing back down to the noon hour’s low. No traction was gained, no overbought or oversold RSIs were left outstanding, and Wednesday’s prior high contained the open’s probe above it.

Overnight action’s new info…
Quickly breaking lower Sunday night attacked 2118.00, which is this morning’s bias-down target. A bounce tested what is this morning’s 2123.25 bias-down signal as resistance before reversing to fresh lows testing 2117.00. That was all done by midnight, ranging choppily between the two since then — and now probing the range’s upper-end to at least 2125.50.

If, then…
Trending this morning should begin by gapping open beyond Friday’s range, and this morning’s open is indicated to gap down. The indication hasn’t much changed in quite awhile, so extending into a downleg might not be obvious immediately. A post-open bounce back up into Friday’s “higher prior lows” around 2128.00 would likely avoid triggering bias-down, while remaining vulnerable to drifting back down into the overnight range, and then to fresh lows through the afternoon. But that would require not touching the 2123.25 bias-down signal at all post-open, which would target positive territory, and which would not likely produce a downleg today. So, just touching the bias-down signal post-open should be very bearish very quickly, if bearish at all.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2122.00 would be likely to trigger the 2123.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.