The First Trade… Stiff upper-lip won’t get the rip.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The rally’s resumption was a victim of its own success Tuesday. Its own success, and its late sponsorship. Monday afternoon’s rally didn’t surge until the final minutes, the overnight rally never cleared Sunday night’s prior high, and the post-open surge was almost forgotten, then quickly attacked its 2091.75 target. Reacting down under overnight lows was recovered to range choppily sideways up to 2084.00–2085.00 as post-close AAPL earnings inhibited trending.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last-minute spike up to 2089.00 had reacted back down to 2083.75 on AAPL’s earnings miss. The Globex open extended the reaction down to 2081.00. And that was the end of that. As usual, price action was inhibited by the anxiousness, and the news was a non-event. A momentary surge to 2087.00 at Europe’s opens was retraced to range narrowly around 2084.00. That’s the ES. Meanwhile, NQs plummeted 55 points in reaction to AAPL, but also only ranged narrowly sideways overnight.
If, then…
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… then maybe you haven’t checked your voicemail? (Apologies to Rudyard and Woody.) Yesterday’s ES pattern interrupted the decline’s momentum from last Wednesday, being the first session not to probe the prior day’s low. But essentially maintaining positive territory did not reverse momentum up, and buyers gained no traction for the effort. Absent gapping up this morning to resume the recovery from Monday’s low, another probe of fresh lows becomes likely. So, the ES holding up compared to NQ had better be appreciated soon, because the lack of upside momentum only enables a morning dip. And no influential econ reports are scheduled until this afternoon’s FOMC statement.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2078.50 would be likely to trigger the 2081.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2083.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.