The First Trade… Still biting at the apple.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Not gapping up Wednesday had precluded the rally from trending up above the prior day’s range. Greeting the open at the prior day’s lows created a lot of room for rallying within its range. First, probing under the prior day’s lows had to be recovered. But positive territory had been recovered well before the afternoon’s Beige Book news, whose knee-jerk reaction down also resolved up. The prior day’s range was maintained, and the intraday rally didn’t gain traction for its efforts.

Overnight action’s new info…
Blipping up from the 2097.00 was reversed down 7 points through midnight to attack 2091.00. Already firming into Europe’s opens, now 2097.00 has been recovered.

If, then…
Wednesday’s intraday rally was limited because Tuesday’s late rally had not gained traction. Wednesday’s rally was able to develop because of the room created by gapping down. Thursday would be able to rally above Wednesday’s range by gapping up above it. Today’s ECB event (with Mario Draghi press conference) and OPEC meeting offer plenty of catalyst for gapping either up, or down. The upside potential remains unchanged at 2016.00-2018.00, while downside potential would face tough support at Tuesday and Wednesday’s lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2089.50 would be likely to trigger the 2090.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2095.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open at 10:15 above 2102.00 would be likely to trigger the 2099.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.