The First Trade… It’s still ticking.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s Employment Situation report triggered a pre-open surge from 2162.00, and opening gap up, and a post-open surge. Momentum slowed considerably before noon, and as the 2177.75 objective was met within 1 tick. It was eventually pierced by 3 ticks by the afternoon’s narrow flat-to-higher ranging into the close. A new trend high close was produced on a Friday.

Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow flat-to-higher ranging persisted Sunday night, even narrower than Friday afternoon, eventually touching 2179.00. Europe’s opens launched a break higher that touched 2183.00. Its reaction down has touched 2180.00. .

If, then…
A new trend high close on a Friday requires there eventually to be at least one more. Friday was also a breakout of a multi-week range. So, already fulfilling the new trend high close today would also confirm Friday’s breakout. That would be bullish, and that’s why it’s today’s least likely resolution — because this particular multi-week range’s other characteristics make it likely to abruptly reject probes above it. Also, Friday’s high satisfied the next outstanding attraction above, and the only attraction above, without closing above it to put into play another attraction. Here’s another reason: Probing higher overnight is greeting the new week with extreme sentiment, which is often a sentiment extreme. Given the vulnerability to resolving down today, confirming Friday’s breakout instead would be that much more bullish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2182.25 would be likely to trigger the 2180.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2186.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2185.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2174.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.