The First Trade… The storm before the storm.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o New! Omnistream
o Anymeeting backup
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap down back under Monday’s low to 1977.00 was already recovering from lower lows overnight. The recovery extended through the morning back up to 1995.00 — almost convincingly. Equilibrium reversed the rally down to new lows under 1971.00. Regardless of being convincing, sellers had gained traction. And regardless of the decline gaining traction, the last hour rallied back up to 1984.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
The last-hour’s rally extended hopefully into the Globex open, hesitating at 1991.00 ahead of China’s open. Ahh, China’s open. Its immediate plunge and immediate halt triggered a drop under Wednesday’s lows to 1961.00-1962.00. That 30-point drop eventually doubled down to 1931.00. Three hours later, price has firmed up to 1944.00.

If, then…
Extending yesterday’s initial 40-point decline intraday would have doubled it. Delaying it didn’t prevent it, and delaying it didn’t delay it for very long. Is the drop hurrying itself down to a bottom, or posturing itself to triple itself? Probably the latter — buyers are becoming increasingly conditioned to the new trend, and the weekend’s illiquidity is fast-approaching. The next lower objective is 1912.00 with room for noise down to 1907.00. Rallying first anyway would find resistance at 1954.00-1956.50. I have no active templates at this stage that contain a path to recovery before extending down sharply, presumably for the long-awaited duplication and magnification of August’s plunge. TGInyF (thank goodness it’s not yet Friday).

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1949.00 would be likely to extend its bounce up to 1954.00-1956.50. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1937.25 would be likely to resume the decline to fresh lows.