The First Trade… Out of its system?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s bias signal overcame the open’s traction, launching a bounce to the 2044.50 bias-up signal despite having trended down to the 2035.74 bias-down signal. The open’s downtrending was ignored even further as the morning’s no-bias trending exceeded 2044.50 by 10 points. The requirement to retest 2044.50 enabled an afternoon dip that only reached obligatory support at 2046.00 before surging again to test the 2059.50 upper-end of Monday’s final hour range.

Overnight action’s new info…
Despite Wednesday’s still overlapping the 2059.50 upper-end of Monday’s final hour range, fresh highs were probed anyway. But a reaction down from 2062.00 never recovered, and fresh lows into Europe’s opens have extended down to 2047.50.

If, then…
Wednesday’s session colored way outside the lines to a very rare degree, but not at all unprecedented. “Unfinished business below” remains outstanding at 2044.50. Delaying its retest is often compensated by also testing that signal’s timing window print, which was 2039.00. Another 3 ticks lower would target 2032.50 and then 2021.00-2022.00. Some degree of pullback is likely since yesterday’s buyers didn’t gain traction for their effort. But probing higher without gapping up is possible, and then a steep reaction down from a new high close would be probable.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2048.75 would be likely to trigger the 2051.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2053.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.