The First Trade… Tempered enthusiasm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s opening surge had renewed the bias-up signal by exceeding its 2266.00 bias-up target through 10:15. But probing it up to 2269.50 had left behind a corrective target below at 2264.75. And fulfilling it into the noon hour never recovered. Two timing windows ranged sideways up to 2266.75, and the position-squaring window slid to 2260.50 through the futures close. The cash session close equated to 2264.00, preserving enough of the open’s gain to prevent the closing action from reversing its uptrend.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open abruptly began reversing Tuesday’s post-close slide without piercing the 2260.50 low. The rally peaked upon attacking Tuesday afternoon’s 2266.75 buy signal to within 1 tick, coinciding with Europe’s opens. Reacting down to attack 2264.00 was recovered entirely, but not yet extended any higher.
If, then…
All of yesterday’s late slide been retraced not only back up to its 2264.75 sell signal, but also up to the afternoon range’s 2266.75 upper-end. Actually, only to within 1 tick. And that was several hours ago, without yet reversing down. If this is optimism, then it is restrained. At least it confirms the late slide was weak-handed and not predictive. None of which assures that yesterday morning’s rally will resume today. But the rally should resume this morning if it’s going to resume this week, and if a deeper slide is going to be avoided. And it should resume this morning so long as the open doesn’t gap down under 2259.00. Resuming the rally would target a retest of the 2273.00 high, up to 2275.50 or 2278.25. Sliding any deeper would target a probe under last Thursday and Friday’s lows below 2249.50 and 2243.00..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2268.75 would be likely to trigger the 2266.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.