The First Trade… Testing the last downleg’s origin.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping down 16 points Thursday from Wednesday’s 2133.50 cash session close, then extended down another 10 points to test 2118.00 through the first half hour. Oversold RSIs at the low were left outstanding while all but 1 point of the drop was retraced into the final hour. The test of Wednesday’s “higher prior lows” reacted down to test 2124.00. Traction was gained by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and then entering the final hour higher.

Overnight action’s new info…
Falling a little further into the Globex open attacked 2122.00. Sideways ranging up to 2128.50 barely acknowledged Europe’s opens, but eventually broke higher. Wednesday’s intraday high has been attacked to within 3 ticks at 2138.75.

If, then…
Recovering above 2131.00 had suggested trending up overnight to being rewarding Thursday’s rally for having gained traction. Gapping up to prior highs (from Wednesday) would risk inverting the setup for having fully rewarded it already. All of Thursday’s recovery could be retraced intraday to fresh lows targeting 2105.00 and 2095.00. But quickly recovering prior highs — preferably gapping up above them — would maintain the likelihood for the morning to trend up, with potential to 2150.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2139.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2136.00 bias-up target through 10:30 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2144.00 and 2145.50. Exiting the open above 2133.00 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2128.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.