The First Trade… There’s both a will, AND a way.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s quadruple witch expiration barely gapped up to Thursday’s highs, barely probed Thursday’s highs, and barely held onto Thursday’s highs. But Thursday’s highs weren’t rejected. That defined the balance of the session, which ranged choppily at or above Thursday’s highs. The noon hour’s reaction down from fresh highs was recovered during the afternoon’s bullish WedEX, and the new trend high close on a Friday further entrenched the rally. But buyers gained no traction for the effort.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open was at the 2036.50-2037.50 low of Friday’s post-close dip. Soon, sliding had extended under Friday’s lows to withing 1 tick of this morning’s 2030.75 bias-down signal’s support. Bouncing into Europe’s opens was retraced to retest the low, forming a bottom. A very influential bottom, which launched a steep two-hour rally that probed Friday’s high up to 2044.25. That has reacted down to test the opening range as support 2037.25.
If, then…
Friday left us with a lot of moving parts. They all seem to be moving higher. At least, for Monday morning, with the bullish WedEX likely to influence price action aggressively. The overnight reversal from its initial weakness does suggest what to expect post-open, so long as the reversal isn’t rejected. Similarly, already largely retracing the large recovery suggests that a post-open rally can fade into the noon hour, assuming that it does develop. While the new trend high close on Friday did entrench the rally for at least another new trend high close, it does not require that higher close to be produced today.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2043.00 would be likely to trigger the 2041.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2039.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
SPECIAL NOTE: Wednesday’s bandwidth issue has returned — in a BIG way. It was resolved before our Market Tour last week. I’m not confident about this morning (upload speed has ranged sporadically from a respectable 4.95 down to a horrific 0.10). We’ll test it shortly before the Tour, and might switch to an alternative, which still wouldn’t be optimal.