The First Trade… They’re trying again.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK <<==click here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open recovered a dip that attacked 1840.00 to probe fresh highs testing 1883.00 into the noon hour. Reacting down throughout the bias environment held unchanged levels at 1852.00. The balance of the session firmed to test Wednesday’s 1869.00 high by several ticks.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending Thursday’s late-afternoon 1855.00-1870.00 range ended before midnight, replaced by a rally back to and through Thursday’s highs to 1892.00.

If, then…
There is significant resistance at 1892.00. Its first test as support had launched a bounce that delayed the decline, and its first test as resistance had reacted down to resume the decline to new lows. It is also the 261.8% projection of a Complex Triangle that had formed during last night’s initial ranging. Exiting the open above it can successfully overcome both elements of its resistance, and allow trending higher intraday. Maintaining a gap up would also overcome that yesterday’s rally gained no traction. Otherwise, even if gapping up, not trending sufficiently higher through the open would be vulnerable to trend back down. Either way, being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist into the afternoon. The weekend’s impending illiquidity has a way of exacerbating trending.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1890.00 would be unlikely to reverse the overnight rally. Exiting the open under 1883.50 would become likely at least to test the 1875.00 bias-up target as support.